The American with three games left: North Texas controls the race

At the halfway mark, we broke this conference into four tiers and called the American the deepest field in the Group of Six. The contenders traded losses. The middle bit. The conclusion was that everyone had something and nobody had everything.

Three games from the finish, the field has sorted itself.

North Texas (7-2, 5-0) is the only unbeaten team in conference play. The Mean Green have won six straight. Memphis (7-2, 4-1) and UTSA (7-2, 4-1) are one game back. The American's championship game sends the top two teams in the final standings, and right now these three hold the most control of their destiny.

After that, the math gets steep. Seven teams are alive but need multiple teams above them to stumble. Four — Charlotte, Temple, Navy and Rice — are eliminated already.

Tier 1: The driver's seat — North Texas (5-0)

The Mean Green have won six straight and are the only team in the conference that controls its own destiny outright. Win out and they're the No. 1 seed in the championship game. No tiebreaker to worry about. No other result to track.

The remaining schedule is the catch. Two of the three games are on the road, and both are against teams with winning home records.

Week | Game | Outlook

11 | at UTSA (Sat, 8 PM CT, ESPNU) | Toss-up — the biggest game remaining in the conference. UTSA is 4-0 at home.

12 | at Tulane | Lean UNT — Tulane is 3-2 at home and already wrecked Memphis at Yulman earlier this season.

13 | vs UAB | Lean UNT — UAB is 0-4 on the road, but the Blazers have one of the conference's best defenses.

North Texas is scoring 48.8 points per game in conference play — first in the American, six points per game clear of the next team. The defense allows 31.4. The Mean Green win with offense. The question is whether that offense travels to San Antonio and New Orleans the way it has at home, where UNT is 5-0.

Tier 2: In the hunt — Memphis and UTSA

Both teams are one game back. Both need to win out for a spot in the championship game, and there's a chance still that might not be enough depending on potential tiebreakers. Both are 7-2 overall. The difference is the remaining schedule.

Memphis (4-1) has the most favorable path of the three contenders.

Week | Game | Outlook

11 | at USF (Thu, 7 PM CT, ESPN) | Lean Memphis — USF has the conference's stingiest overall defense (15.1 ppg), but the Tigers score 40.8 per game in league play.

12 | at Navy (11 AM CT) | Lean Memphis — Navy is 3-1 at home and the triple option is disruptive, but Memphis should have too much firepower for a 2-4 conference team.

13 | vs Temple | Memphis — Temple is 1-4 in conference on a four-game losing streak.

Memphis is the most balanced contender — 40.8 points per game in conference, 21.6 allowed. That +19.2 scoring margin is the best in the league. The path to 7-1 runs through one difficult game Thursday night in Tampa and then two games the Tigers should win. If North Texas loses anywhere along the way, Memphis at 7-1 would be in strong position for the No. 1 seed.

UTSA (4-1) has the hardest remaining road — and just lost.

Week | Game | Outlook

11 | vs UNT (Sat, 8 PM CT, ESPNU) | Toss-up — the most important game left on the conference schedule. UTSA is 4-0 at home. North Texas brings the league's best offense.

12 | at UAB | Lean UTSA — but UAB is 5-0 at home with one of the conference's best defenses. Birmingham is not a free road win.

13 | vs Tulsa | Lean UTSA — Tulsa's turnover creation is real, but the Roadrunners at home should control this.

UTSA's conference margin is the thinnest of the three contenders: 31.2 points per game scored, 30.2 allowed. The Roadrunners are winning by a point per game in league play. There is no cushion for a bad night.

If UTSA beats North Texas on Saturday, the head-to-head tiebreaker belongs to the Roadrunners and the race becomes a three-team fight. If UTSA loses, it drops to 4-2 and needs to run the table while hoping for help everywhere else.

Tier 3: Alive but needs help

Seven teams are still in it mathematically. None controls its destiny. All need at least two of the three teams above them to lose multiple games down the stretch. The spoiler potential from this tier is more real than the championship possibilities.

The 3-2 group has a narrow path.

Army (5-4, 4-2) has the best record in this tier and the most manageable remaining schedule — ECU at home and at Rice. The Black Knights could realistically finish 6-2, but they need North Texas AND one of Memphis or UTSA to lose multiple games. The defense (28.3 ppg allowed in conference) will keep them in every game. Whether the opportunity ever arrives is the question.

UAB (5-4, 3-2) may matter more as a spoiler than a contender. The Blazers are 5-0 at home and host UTSA in Week 12. Win that game and UAB directly reshapes the top of the standings. The path to 6-2 requires beating Temple (should), beating UTSA at home (possible) and winning at North Texas (hard — and UAB is 0-4 on the road). UAB's conference numbers tell the story: 20.0 points scored per game, 23.4 allowed. The Blazers are winning tight games at home and losing everywhere else.

FAU (6-3, 3-2) is the conference's most chaotic team — 42.8 points per game scored in conference play, 42.4 allowed. The Owls are 5-0 at home and play all three remaining games against the middle of the standings (at Tulsa, vs USF, at ECU). A 6-2 conference finish is realistic. Getting past the three teams above them is not.

ECU (5-4, 3-2) wins with defense — 21.8 ppg allowed in conference — but the offense (23.2 ppg scored) limits the ceiling. The remaining schedule is Charlotte (should win), at Army (tough) and FAU (coin flip). Bowl eligibility is the realistic target.

The 2-3 group is alive on paper. In practice, they're playing for bowls and spoiler value.

Tulsa (5-4, 2-3) visits UTSA in Week 13. If the race is still tight, the turnover creation that made Tulsa dangerous at midseason could flip a result that changes the standings.

USF (6-3, 2-3) hosts Memphis Thursday night on ESPN. An upset would be the most disruptive single result remaining in the conference — it would hand Memphis a second conference loss and crack the race open. The Bulls' defense (15.1 ppg overall) is good enough to make it uncomfortable.

Tulane (4-5, 2-3) hosts North Texas in Week 12 at Yulman Stadium. The Green Wave already beat Memphis there but were embarrassed on homecoming by Tulsa on Saturday. Another home upset against a conference leader would turn the race upside down.

Eliminated: Charlotte, Temple, Navy, Rice

Charlotte (1-8, 1-4), Temple (2-7, 1-4), Navy (3-6, 2-4) and Rice (1-8, 0-5) cannot reach the championship game. Charlotte is near the bottom of the conference in scoring defense. Temple has lost four straight. Navy can finish no better than 4-4. Rice is winless in conference play on an eight-game losing streak.

These teams still affect the race because every contender has at least one game left against this tier. Those results will pad records but won't change the math at the top.

The game that matters most

By the time North Texas and UTSA kick off Saturday night in San Antonio (8 p.m. CT, ESPNU), Memphis will already have its answer from Thursday in Tampa. If the Tigers handle USF, the conference will have three teams at 4-1 or better heading into the weekend's main event. If USF pulls the upset, the race opens behind North Texas.

Either way, UNT at UTSA is the game that shapes everything that follows.

If North Texas wins, the Mean Green are 6-0 and two wins from the No. 1 seed. Memphis — with its softer remaining schedule — becomes the clear favorite for the No. 2 spot.

If UTSA wins, the Roadrunners own the head-to-head tiebreaker over UNT and the race becomes a multi-team fight heading into the final two games.

The American's depth was the story at midseason. Three games from the finish, the depth has sorted the field. Three teams lead. Seven are alive. Four are done. And the most important game left in the conference is Saturday night in San Antonio.