Diehard G6 bowl projections: Three teams control their playoff fate as the first rankings arrive Tuesday

The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2026 season will be released Tuesday, and the Group of 6 race has a clear hierarchy. The top three teams in the Diehard G6 Top 25 — Boise State (7-1, 4-0 Pac-12), New Mexico (7-1, 4-0 Mountain West) and UTSA (7-1, 4-0 American) — all control their own fate with identical records and unblemished conference marks.

Boise State is expected to hold the top G6 spot. The Broncos' only loss came at Oregon, and they carry a seven-game winning streak into the stretch run. But starting quarterback Maddux Madsen's injury status is an unexpected curve, and the schedule does not ease up — Oregon State visits on Nov. 14, and San Diego State comes to Boise on Nov. 21.

New Mexico faces Nevada this week, then closes with UNLV, Wyoming and Air Force — all three projected bowl-eligible on this board. UTSA has a tricky road trip to FAU this week, then a showdown with American co-leader North Texas (6-2, 4-0), a road trip to UAB and a close against Tulsa. Every remaining game for all three teams carries weight.

Expect upsets. And if they come, they could open the door for Memphis (7-2, 4-1 American) or Liberty (7-1, 4-0 CUSA) to fight into the CFP discussion.

This week's board features 20 bowl games plus the CFP, with 35 G6 teams projected to play in December and January. Nine matchups are new, six teams join the board and Troy returns after a stunning overtime comeback at James Madison.

Matchups worth circling

James Madison vs. Clemson (TransPerfect San Juan Bowl, San Juan, Dec. 16)

The Sun Belt's marquee bowl slot gets an upgrade. James Madison (7-2, 4-2) draws Clemson in the TransPerfect San Juan Bowl, which was announced Oct. 22 as the most lucrative bowl deal in Sun Belt history and the conference's first primary tie-in against an autonomy conference opponent. The Dukes have dropped two straight after starting 7-0, but a matchup against an ACC program in San Juan is the kind of national stage the Sun Belt has been building toward.

Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana Tech (New Orleans Bowl, New Orleans, Dec. 23)

Two of the hottest teams in the Group of 6. Jacksonville State (6-2, 4-0 CUSA) has won five straight and is heading toward a collision with Liberty for the CUSA title. Louisiana Tech (6-2, 4-0 Sun Belt West) is on a five-game winning streak of its own and leads its division outright. Both programs are on the rise, and a December meeting in New Orleans would be a matchup of two teams that got better as the season went on.

UTSA vs. New Mexico (New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, Dec. 24)

Still one of the best potential matchups on the G6 slate. Both teams are 7-1, unbeaten in conference play and legitimate CFP contenders. If neither wins the G6 auto-bid, this becomes a matchup of conference champions on Christmas Eve — and two of the three teams with the strongest playoff cases meeting in a bowl game because only one G6 team gets in.

North Texas vs. Oklahoma State (First Responder Bowl, Dallas, Jan. 2)

The most personal game on the board. Eric Morris left North Texas after a 12-win season to take the Oklahoma State job, and 17 Mean Green players followed him to Stillwater. North Texas (6-2, 4-0 American) has not missed a beat, sitting atop the conference alongside UTSA with a five-game winning streak. A bowl meeting in Dallas, 40 miles from Denton, would be a reunion neither side would treat as an exhibition.

Memphis vs. Pitt (Fenway Bowl, Boston, Dec. 26)

Memphis (7-2, 4-1) has legitimate CFP aspirations, and the Tigers would be frustrated if they are not part of the conversation when the rankings are released Tuesday. A shot at an ACC opponent at Fenway Park — against a conference Memphis might like to join — would be a consolation prize worth having.

The full board

College Football Playoff: Boise State (Pac-12 champion, G6 auto-bid) at Notre Dame

Date | Bowl | City | TV | Tie-In | Projection | Analysis

Dec. 15 | Salute to Veterans | Montgomery, AL | ESPN | Sun Belt vs. MAC | South Alabama vs. Miami (Ohio) | South Alabama (4-4) gets a de facto home game, 170 miles from Mobile. Miami (Ohio) is 5-3 and 3-1 in the MAC.

Dec. 15 | Frisco Classic | Frisco, TX | ESPN | G6 vs. G6 | Texas State vs. Tulsa | Both teams still have work to do to be eligible but would bring exciting offenses to this matchup

Dec. 16 | TransPerfect San Juan | San Juan, PR | ESPN | Sun Belt vs. ACC | James Madison vs. Clemson | James Madison (7-2) gets the Sun Belt's marquee bowl slot against an ACC power.

Dec. 18 | Boca Raton | Boca Raton, FL | ESPN | G6 vs. G6 | App State vs. Ohio | Ohio (6-2, 4-0 MAC) leads the conference outright on a five-game winning streak. App State is 5-3 and 2-2 in the Sun Belt.

Dec. 18 | Gasparilla | Tampa, FL | ESPN | American vs. ACC | East Carolina vs. NC State | In-state rivals on a neutral field in Tampa. East Carolina is 4-4 and 2-2 in the American.

Dec. 21 | Myrtle Beach | Conway, SC | ESPN | American/CUSA/MAC/Sun Belt | Delaware vs. Louisiana | Delaware (4-4, 2-2 CUSA) is on a two-game winning streak. Louisiana is 5-3 and 2-2 in the Sun Belt.

Dec. 21 | Idaho Potato | Boise, ID | ESPN | MAC vs. MWC | Toledo vs. Wyoming | Toledo (6-2, 3-1 MAC) and Wyoming (5-3, 4-1 Mountain West) are both near the top of their conference standings.

Dec. 22 | Puerto Rico | Bayamon, PR | ESPN | G6 vs. G6 | UAB vs. Georgia Southern | UAB (4-4, 2-2 American) needs two wins from four remaining to reach bowl eligibility. Georgia Southern (4-4, 3-1 Sun Belt East) is on a two-game winning streak.

Dec. 22 | Cure | Orlando, FL | ESPN | G6 vs. G6 | FAU vs. Marshall | FAU (5-3, 2-2 American) and Marshall (5-3, 2-2 Sun Belt) would be a matchup of former CUSA rivals

Dec. 23 | New Orleans | New Orleans, LA | ESPN | CUSA vs. Sun Belt | Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana Tech | Two of the hottest teams in the G6 — JSU (6-2, 4-0 CUSA) has won five straight, and La Tech (6-2, 4-0 Sun Belt West) matches them streak for streak.

Dec. 23 | Armed Forces | Fort Worth, TX | ESPN | American vs. CUSA | Army vs. Liberty | Liberty (7-1, 4-0 CUSA) has won seven straight. Army (5-3, 4-2 American) brings the pageantry.

Dec. 23 | Poinsettia | San Diego, CA | CW | Pac-12 vs. former Pac-12 | Oregon State vs. Arizona State | The new Pac-12 against a former league rival that left for the Big 12. Oregon State is 5-3 and 3-1 in conference.

Dec. 23 | Frisco Bowl | Frisco, TX | ESPN | G6 vs. G6 | UNLV vs. Tulane | UNLV (5-3, 3-1 Mountain West) and Tulane (4-4, 2-2 American) would be a strong matchup of teams that wanted more in 2026

Dec. 24 | Hawaii | Honolulu, HI | ESPN | Pac-12 vs. MWC | Fresno State vs. Air Force | Air Force (6-2, 3-2) and Fresno State (5-3, 2-2 Pac-12) in Honolulu on Christmas Eve.

Dec. 24 | New Mexico | Albuquerque, NM | ESPN | American vs. MWC | UTSA vs. New Mexico | Could be conference champion vs. conference champion if neither wins the G6 auto-bid. Both are 7-1 and unbeaten in league play.

Dec. 26 | Fenway | Boston, MA | ESPN | American vs. ACC | Memphis vs. Pitt | Memphis (7-2, 4-1) has CFP aspirations; a shot at an ACC opponent at Fenway Park is a consolation prize worth having.

Dec. 26 | 68 Ventures | Mobile, AL | ESPN | CUSA/MAC/Sun Belt | Troy vs. Buffalo | Troy (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt) returns to the board after an overtime comeback at James Madison. Buffalo (5-3, 3-1 MAC) is on a three-game winning streak.

Dec. 28 | Military | Annapolis, MD | ESPN | American vs. ACC | South Florida vs. Louisville | South Florida (6-2, 2-2) gets a shot at former American Conference rival Louisville, now in the ACC.

Jan. 2 | First Responder | Dallas, TX | ABC | American vs. Big 12 | North Texas vs. Oklahoma State | Eric Morris left North Texas after a 12-win season and took 17 players to Stillwater. A reunion in Dallas would be appointment television.

Jan. 2 | Arizona | Tucson, AZ | CW | MAC vs. MWC | Western Michigan vs. NDSU | NDSU (7-2, 4-2 Mountain West) and Western Michigan (6-3, 4-1 MAC) close the bowl season in Tucson.

Diehard Bowl Projections update weekly through the end of the regular season.