Diehard G6 bowl projections: Boise State holds the CFP spot, but the race behind them is heating up

Boise State remains our projected College Football Playoff representative in Week 9 of the Diehard Bowl Projections. The Broncos (6-1) are the projected Pac-12 champion, and after James Madison's overtime loss at Appalachian State on Thursday night, Boise State's path to the G6 auto-bid is cleaner than it was a week ago.

But five teams — not one — have legitimate arguments. Boise State's only loss came at Oregon. New Mexico (6-1) just beat then-Diehard G6 No. 5 North Dakota State 21-16 in Albuquerque, and its only loss came at Oklahoma. UTSA (7-1) has won five straight and sits 4-0 in the American, with its only loss at Texas. Oregon State (5-2) has won five in a row since competitive losses to Big 12 CFP contenders Houston and Texas Tech to open the season. The Beavers will be favored against Fresno State and Texas State before a Nov. 14 showdown at Boise State that could decide the Pac-12 and the G6 auto-bid in one game. James Madison (7-1) is the only team in the group with a conference loss, falling in overtime at App State, and now has no margin for error — win out impressively or hope for help.

Below those five, everyone needs help.

This week's board features 20 bowl games plus the CFP, with 35 G6 teams projected to play in December and January. The TransPerfect San Juan Bowl — announced Oct. 22 as the most lucrative bowl deal in Sun Belt history — joins the lineup as the conference's first primary tie-in against an autonomy conference opponent. The Birmingham Bowl falls off the G6 board with no G6 team projected in that game.

Matchups worth circling

North Texas vs. Oklahoma State (First Responder Bowl, Dallas, Jan. 2)

Still the most personal game on the entire bowl slate. Eric Morris left North Texas after a 12-win season to take the Oklahoma State job — and nearly 20 Mean Green players followed him to Stillwater, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who led the nation with 4,379 passing yards in 2025. A bowl meeting in Dallas, 40 miles from Denton, would be a reunion neither side would treat as an exhibition.

UTSA vs. New Mexico (New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, Dec. 24)

We project UTSA to win the American and New Mexico to win the Mountain West. Both are CFP contenders. If both hold serve, this becomes a matchup of conference champions on Christmas Eve — and two of the five teams with the strongest CFP cases facing each other in a bowl game because neither won the auto-bid.

Oregon State vs. Arizona (Poinsettia Bowl, San Diego, Dec. 23)

The Poinsettia Bowl returns after a decade-long hiatus with a built-in storyline: the new Pac-12 against the teams that left it. Oregon State, one of two schools left when the conference collapsed, faces a former league rival that bolted for the Big 12.

James Madison vs. Virginia Tech (TransPerfect San Juan Bowl, San Juan, Dec. 16)

The Sun Belt announced a matchup against a Power 4 team in its newest bowl, and you couldn't hope for much better than James Madison vs. Virginia Tech. The two were supposed to meet at Lane Stadium in September, but the game was canceled when the ACC moved to a nine-game conference schedule for 2026. A bowl meeting in San Juan would give both fan bases the game they lost.

Pitt vs. Memphis (Fenway Bowl, Boston, Dec. 26)

Memphis (6-2) is going to be upset if the Tigers aren't in the CFP conversation, but the 31-17 loss at Tulane in Week 7 might keep them on the outside looking in. A shot at an ACC opponent at Fenway Park — and a league Memphis might like to join — would be a consolation prize worth having. Charles Huff brought 57 transfers in Year 1 and has the Tigers in the thick of the American race.

The full board

College Football Playoff: Boise State (Pac-12 champion, G6 auto-bid)

Date | Bowl | City | TV | Tie-In | Projection | Analysis

Dec. 15 | Salute to Veterans | Montgomery, AL | ESPN | MAC vs. Sun Belt | South Alabama vs. Miami (Ohio) | South Alabama (4-3) gets a de facto home game, 160 miles from Mobile.

Dec. 15 | Frisco Classic | Frisco, TX | ESPN | G6 vs. G6 | Louisiana Tech vs. FAU | La Tech (5-2) is the only unbeaten team in Sun Belt West play at 3-0.

Dec. 16 | TransPerfect San Juan | San Juan, PR | ESPN | Sun Belt vs. ACC | James Madison vs. Virginia Tech | JMU (7-1) gets the Sun Belt's marquee bowl slot; Virginia Tech gives the Dukes a familiar in-state rival.

Dec. 18 | Boca Raton | Boca Raton, FL | ESPN | G6 vs. G6 | App State vs. Ohio | App State (5-2) rides the momentum of an overtime upset of then-Diehard G6 No. 2 James Madison.

Dec. 18 | Gasparilla | Tampa, FL | ESPN | ACC vs. AAC/SEC | ECU vs. NC State | NC State fired Dave Doeren at 3-4; a bowl loss to in-state ECU would be the final indignity.

Dec. 21 | Myrtle Beach | Conway, SC | ESPN | AAC/MAC vs. Sun Belt | Tulane vs. Louisiana | Two Louisiana schools on neutral ground; Tulane's defense forced six turnovers in its win over Memphis.

Dec. 21 | Idaho Potato | Boise, ID | ESPN | MAC vs. MWC | Toledo vs. Wyoming | Both teams are making conference championship runs; Wyoming (5-3) has won three straight including a 28-14 win over Air Force.

Dec. 22 | Puerto Rico | Bayamon, PR | ESPN | G6 vs. G6 | UAB vs. FIU | UAB is trying to return to a bowl game for the first time since 2022; the Blazers and Panthers split two games as CUSA rivals.

Dec. 22 | Cure | Orlando, FL | ESPN | G6 vs. G6 | Georgia State vs. Buffalo | Buffalo running back Messiah Burch has five consecutive 100-yard rushing games, the first Bull to do that since 2019.

Dec. 23 | New Orleans | New Orleans, LA | ESPN | CUSA vs. Sun Belt | Jacksonville State vs. Marshall | Marshall (4-3) earned its spot on the board with a 20-13 win over South Alabama in Week 8.

Dec. 23 | Armed Forces | Fort Worth, TX | ESPN | American vs. CUSA | Army vs. Liberty | Army (5-2) won its last game on a walk-off 50-yard field goal; Liberty (6-1) has won six straight.

Dec. 23 | Poinsettia | San Diego, CA | CW | Pac-12 vs. former Pac-12 | Oregon State vs. Arizona | Oregon State was left behind when Arizona bolted for the Big 12; the Beavers have won five straight.

Dec. 23 | Frisco Bowl | Frisco, TX | ESPN | G6 vs. G6 | UNLV vs. Texas State | UNLV (4-3) opened its season with a home loss to Memphis; both teams are Pac-12 newcomers.

Dec. 24 | New Mexico | Albuquerque, NM | ESPN | MWC vs. AAC | UTSA vs. New Mexico | Could be conference champion vs. conference champion if neither wins the G6 auto-bid.

Dec. 24 | Hawaii | Honolulu, HI | ESPN | Pac-12 vs. MWC | Fresno State vs. Air Force | Air Force (5-2) dropped 14 spots in the G6 Top 25 after a 28-14 loss to Wyoming.

Dec. 26 | Fenway | Boston, MA | ESPN | ACC vs. American | Pitt vs. Memphis | The Tulane loss likely keeps Memphis (6-2) out of CFP contention, but a shot at an ACC team would be a nice consolation prize.

Dec. 26 | 68 Ventures | Mobile, AL | ESPN | CUSA/MAC/Sun Belt | Arkansas State vs. Middle Tennessee | Two regional programs fighting to reach six wins; Mobile is a short drive for both fan bases.

Dec. 28 | Military | Annapolis, MD | ESPN | ACC vs. American | South Florida vs. Louisville | South Florida (5-2) is 1-2 in American play and needs conference wins down the stretch to hold this spot.

Jan. 2 | First Responder | Dallas, TX | ABC | ACC/Big 12 vs. American | North Texas vs. Oklahoma State | Eric Morris left North Texas after a 12-win season and took nearly 20 players with him to Stillwater.

Jan. 2 | Arizona | Tucson, AZ | CW | MAC vs. MWC | Western Michigan vs. NDSU | NDSU (6-2) is the highest-ranked Mountain West team behind New Mexico.

Diehard Bowl Projections update weekly through the end of the regular season.