Diehard Picks: Week 3

The marquee game on the G6 schedule is Diehard G6 Top 25 No. 3 James Madison at No. 21 San Diego State, Saturday night on CW. Billy Napier's Dukes are 2-0 and unbeaten ATS, yet the market has them as 2.5-point underdogs in San Diego. We're picking JMU outright — one of four upset calls this week, alongside UAB at Louisiana, North Texas at Texas State and Wyoming at Central Michigan.

North Texas travels to Texas State as a 3-point underdog in a series UNT leads 28-7-3 all-time — Texas State won the most recent meeting 30-28 in a bowl game in January 2025. In the state of Alabama, Troy heads to SEC country to face AP No. 20 Missouri, UAB travels to Louisiana and South Alabama hosts an Ohio team that may be starting a true freshman quarterback after two QBs were injured in the four-overtime win over Jacksonville State.

Forty-six games. Four sections. Here we go.

Last week: SU 43-8 | ATS 28-20-1

Season: SU 51-10 (.836) | ATS 33-25-1 (.569)

Alabama Schools

Ohio (1-1) at South Alabama (1-1) | USA -7 | O/U 49.5

Pick: South Alabama 27, Ohio 21 — Ohio covers

Line opened at USA -3.5 and moved toward South Alabama after Ohio's top two quarterbacks were injured in the four-overtime win over Jacksonville State. True freshman Levi Davis may start. USA lost 28-24 at Tulane but outgained the Green Wave 478-424 with Bishop Davenport going 22-of-32 for a career-high 296 yards. Ohio won the 2024 meeting 27-20.

Georgia Southern (1-1) at Jacksonville State (1-2) | Jax State -3.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Jacksonville State 30, Georgia Southern 24 — Jax State covers

Georgia Southern leads the all-time series 5-0. Jax State is coming off a four-overtime loss at Ohio. PFF ranks Georgia Southern 83rd and JSU 92nd. Jax State's passing attack grades 70.6.

UAB (1-1) at Louisiana (1-1) | UL -7.5 | O/U 56.5

Pick: UAB 30, Louisiana 27 — UAB covers and wins outright

The series is tied 4-4 all-time. UAB lost 42-23 at Illinois in the opener and beat ULM 26-20. Louisiana scored 30 at USC and covered the spread. PFF says UAB +7.5 carries 6.2% value. Louisiana's schedule strength ranks 16th, but the Cajuns haven't played a G6 opponent yet.

Troy (2-0) at Missouri (2-0) | MIZ -26.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Missouri 41, Troy 17 — Troy covers

Missouri leads the all-time series 3-1. Troy is 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS — beat Sam Houston 24-21 and Alabama State 34-17 but didn't cover either spread. Line moved a point toward Troy. PFF ranks Troy 78th and Missouri 20th. Troy's passer rating under pressure is 87.9; Missouri's is 39.6. Fifty-two percent of bets are on Troy to cover.

G6 vs. G6

Coastal Carolina (1-1) at Delaware (1-1) | DEL -5.5 | O/U 57.5

Pick: Delaware 30, Coastal Carolina 24 — Delaware covers

Delaware went 7-6 with a bowl win in its first CUSA season last year. Both teams are 2-0 ATS. Coastal's Deuce Bailey threw for 373 yards and 3 TDs in a second-half comeback at West Virginia but the Chants still lost.

North Texas (1-1) at Texas State (0-2) | TXST -3 | O/U 62.5

Pick: North Texas 36, Texas State 27 — North Texas covers and wins outright

North Texas leads the all-time series 28-7-3, but Texas State won the most recent meeting 30-28 in a bowl game in January 2025. UNT beat UNLV 44-6 last week. Texas State is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS — a 59-7 loss at Texas followed by a 31-26 home loss to UTSA.

Wyoming (1-1) at Central Michigan (1-1) | CMU -1.5 | O/U 39.5

Pick: Wyoming 28, Central Michigan 24 — Wyoming covers and wins outright

Both teams are 0-2 ATS. Lowest O/U on the Week 3 board. Both rank bottom-10 nationally in third-down conversion rate (CMU 125th at 29.6%, Wyoming 129th at 25.0%). Wyoming QB Hughes against Northern Colorado: 149 yards, 2 TDs, zero INTs, 69.2% completions.

Temple (1-1) at Toledo (1-1) | TOL -6 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Toledo 29, Temple 21 — Toledo covers

Toledo beat Central Connecticut 63-10 in Week 2. QB Richter threw for 252 yards and 3 TDs. The Rockets added the 2025 FCS Defensive Player of the Year, DE Andrew Zock, via transfer. OLB Isaac Zay has 19 tackles, an INT and 2 pass breakups through 2 games. Temple lost 27-9 at Penn State.

Ball State (1-1) at Liberty (1-1) | LIB -14.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Liberty 34, Ball State 17 — Liberty covers

Liberty is 0-2 ATS, including a 24-23 win over Gardner-Webb as a heavy favorite. Ball State lost 56-3 at Ohio State then beat Stony Brook 41-17.

East Carolina (0-2) at Old Dominion (1-1) | ODU -2.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Old Dominion 27, East Carolina 22 — Old Dominion covers

ECU has won all five prior meetings, including 20-14 at ODU in 2024. Both are 0-2 ATS. Line moved half a point toward ECU. ECU lost 27-24 to App State. ODU lost 44-21 at Virginia Tech.

FIU (1-1) at FAU (1-1) | FAU -6.5 | O/U 62.5

Pick: FAU 30, FIU 21 — FAU covers

Twenty-fourth edition of the Shula Bowl. FIU reclaimed the trophy last year with a 38-28 win, snapping FAU's seven-game winning streak in the rivalry. FIU is 2-0 ATS. FAU beat Navy 38-30 last week as an underdog.

Charlotte (0-2) at App State (2-0) | APP -18 | O/U 51.5

Pick: App State 38, Charlotte 13 — App State covers

Charlotte lost 43-41 in triple overtime to The Citadel (FCS) in Week 1, then lost 41-9 at Ole Miss. App State is 2-0 ATS after beating Maine 55-3 and winning 27-24 at ECU.

Marshall (1-1) at Missouri State (1-1) | MRSH -4.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Marshall 34, Missouri State 20 — Marshall covers

Marshall is 0-2 ATS but the line moved a point toward the Herd. QB Del Rio-Wilson went 7-of-8 for 92 yards and a TD and added 43 rushing yards against MTSU. Marshall converts only 20.8% of third downs (133rd in FBS). Missouri State, in its second year as an FBS program, beat Lindenwood 48-14 behind QB Locklear (17-of-20, 258 yards). On CBS Sports Network.

UConn (1-1) at Southern Miss (1-1) | CONN -3 | O/U 54.5

Pick: UConn 34, Southern Miss 21 — UConn covers

First-year coach Jason Candle's UConn roster has nearly 70 new players — 58 via portal. Southern Miss gave up 343 rushing yards at Auburn in a 43-8 loss.

Nevada (1-1) at Middle Tennessee (1-1) | NEV -3.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Nevada 27, Middle Tennessee 20 — Nevada covers

Line opened at Nevada -6.5 and collapsed 3 points toward MTSU — the biggest G6-on-G6 line move of the week. MTSU is 2-0 ATS. We picked Nevada over Montana State last week and got crushed. Ninety-four percent of bets are on Nevada but the sharp money is on MTSU.

Western Michigan (1-1) at Rice (1-1) | WMU -9.5 | O/U 43.5

Pick: Western Michigan 35, Rice 24 — Western Michigan covers

WMU should have beaten Michigan. The Broncos led 12-7 when officials put a second back on the clock for a Hail Mary — Michigan hit the next one. The MAC formally appealed the result. WMU's turnover margin is +5 (5th nationally); Rice's is -3 (125th). Rice was shut out 52-0 at Notre Dame.

James Madison (2-0) at San Diego State (1-1) | SDSU -2.5 | O/U 46.5

Pick: James Madison 30, San Diego State 24 — JMU covers and wins outright

Saturday night on CW. JMU is 2-0 ATS; SDSU is 0-2 ATS. PFF ranks JMU 30th nationally and SDSU 73rd. JMU's passer rating under pressure is 120.1; SDSU's is 39.6. Line moved half a point toward JMU.

NDSU (3-0) at Sacramento State (1-2) | NDSU -27.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: NDSU 44, Sacramento State 13 — NDSU covers

NDSU is 3-0 in its first FBS season and won at Air Force 38-32 last week. The Bison's first Mountain West away game. Sacramento State is 1-2.

Fresno State (1-1) at San Jose State (2-1) | FRES -6.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Fresno State 31, San Jose State 14 — Fresno State covers

Battle for the Valley — rivalry now crosses conference lines since Fresno joined the Pac-12 and SJSU stayed in the Mountain West. Fresno leads the all-time series 46-39-3. Fresno lost 39-0 at USC then beat Sacramento State 49-3. On FS1.

G6 vs. Power 4

Akron (1-1) at Minnesota (1-1) | MINN -23.5 | O/U 49

Pick: Minnesota 38, Akron 10 — Minnesota covers

Akron is 2-0 ATS. Line moved a point toward the Zips. Akron's ATS record has come against Robert Morris and Wake Forest.

Tulane (1-1) at Kansas State (2-0) | KSU -20.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Kansas State 34, Tulane 24 — Tulane covers

Tulane leads the all-time series 2-1. Road team has won 2 of the last 3. Tulane is 0-2 ATS but RB Jaylin Lucas ran for 214 yards against South Alabama with runs of 54 and 80 yards. Both teams have 100% red-zone scoring rates.

Bowling Green (0-2) at Iowa State (1-1) | ISU -23.5 | O/U 44.5

Pick: Iowa State 40, Bowling Green 10 — Iowa State covers

BG is 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS. Tarleton State (FCS) RB Tylan Hines ran for 250 yards on 26 carries against the Falcons in Week 1. BG lost 56-7 at Nebraska.

Buffalo (1-1) at Penn State (2-0) | PSU -41 | O/U 50

Pick: Penn State 52, Buffalo 10 — Penn State covers

Buffalo is 0-2 ATS. The Bulls lost 33-20 at FIU last week. The line moved 1.5 points toward Penn State.

Kent State (1-1) at Ohio State (1-1) | OSU -52.5 | O/U 60

Pick: Ohio State 65, Kent State 10 — Ohio State covers

Largest spread on the Week 3 board. Ohio State lost the AP No. 1 ranking after Texas scored 21 unanswered in the fourth quarter to win 24-23.

Eastern Michigan (1-2) at Wisconsin (1-1) | WIS -24.5 | O/U 45.5

Pick: Wisconsin 31, Eastern Michigan 14 — Eastern Michigan covers

Wisconsin is 0-2 ATS. EMU lost 35-7 at Michigan State.

Utah State (0-2) at Utah (2-0) | UTAH -28 | O/U 56.5

Pick: Utah 38, Utah State 17 — Utah State covers

In-state rivalry. Utah State is 0-2 SU but committed four INTs against FCS Idaho State in Week 1 and still outgained the Bengals 407-241.

UTEP (1-1) at Michigan (2-0) | MICH -34.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Michigan 48, UTEP 13 — Michigan covers

Michigan beat Oklahoma 17-10 last week after the Hail Mary controversy win over WMU, which the MAC formally appealed. UTEP was shut out 51-0 at Oklahoma in Week 1.

Miami (OH) (1-1) at Cincinnati (2-0) | CIN -14.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Cincinnati 27, Miami (OH) 20 — Miami (OH) covers

The Victory Bell rivalry. Cincinnati is 2-0 ATS. Miami (OH) beat Holy Cross 45-7, covering -30.5.

Louisiana Tech (1-1) at Baylor (1-1) | BAY -17.5 | O/U 54.5

Pick: Baylor 41, Louisiana Tech 17 — Baylor covers

Both teams are 2-0 ATS. La Tech scored TDs on its first 11 possessions in a program-record 80-6 win over Northwestern State. La Tech's turnover margin is +2; Baylor's is -1.

Western Kentucky (0-2) at Indiana (2-0) | IND -44.5 | O/U 60.5

Pick: Indiana 65, Western Kentucky 10 — Indiana covers

Indiana is 0-2 ATS as the defending national champion. WKU has allowed 59.5 PPG and 489.5 YPG through two games. Indiana QB Josh Hoover threw 4 TDs on 11 attempts against Howard in a 55-0 rout.

Georgia State (2-0) at UCF (1-1) | UCF -17.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: UCF 37, Georgia State 19 — UCF covers

Both teams are 2-0 ATS. Georgia State set a program record with 59 points against NC A&T then upset Kennesaw State 31-17 as an underdog. Kennesaw State is in its third year as an FBS program.

New Mexico (2-0) at Oklahoma (1-1) | OKLA -22.5 | O/U 46.5

Pick: Oklahoma 47, New Mexico 23 — Oklahoma covers

New Mexico is 2-0 ATS under second-year HC Jason Eck after a 9-win 2025 season, the Lobos' best since 2007. Oklahoma dropped from AP No. 11 to No. 24 after losing to Michigan. O/U dropped 2 points.

Colorado State (2-0) at BYU (2-0) | BYU -17.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: BYU 35, Colorado State 24 — Colorado State covers

Both teams are 2-0 ATS. CSU's Hauss Hejny threw five TD passes in Jim Mora's debut.

Kennesaw State (1-1) at Tennessee (2-0) | TENN -35.5 | O/U 60

Pick: Tennessee 56, Kennesaw State 16 — Tennessee covers

KSU lost to Georgia State 31-17 after opening with a 47-0 rout of West Georgia. Tennessee CB Rickey Gibson is out. DT Jaxson Moi is questionable. TE Davis suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2.

Arkansas State (1-1) at TCU (1-1) | TCU -20 | O/U 56.5

Pick: TCU 38, Arkansas State 24 — Arkansas State covers

Ark State QB Trey Owens, a Texas transfer, threw for 325 yards in his debut at Memphis but also threw 4 INTs. Beat West Georgia 52-7 in Week 2.

UTSA (2-0) at Texas (2-0) | TEX -30.5 | O/U 58

Pick: Texas 41, UTSA 20 — UTSA covers

Texas scored 21 unanswered in the fourth quarter to beat AP No. 1 Ohio State 24-23. UTSA's 31-26 win over Texas State was the 100th win in program history. QB Owen McCown threw for 214 yards and a TD.

Northern Illinois (0-2) at Arizona (1-1) | ARIZ -34.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Arizona 40, Northern Illinois 17 — Northern Illinois covers

NIU was shut out 40-0 at Iowa then lost 28-24 to FCS Illinois State on a 16-yard TD pass with 1:53 left. NIU upset Notre Dame 16-14 in 2024. Former Walter Payton Award runner-up QB Taron Dickens came off the bench against Iowa.

G6 vs. FCS

Duquesne at Washington State (0-2) | WSU -38.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Washington State 48, Duquesne 7 — Washington State covers

WSU is 0-2 SU after losses to Washington and Kansas State (34-7).

Stonehill at UMass (2-0) | UMASS -34.5 | O/U not posted

Pick: UMass 45, Stonehill 7 — UMass covers

UMass is 2-0 and ranked No. 25 in the Diehard G6 Top 25. Stonehill is an FCS program.

SE Louisiana at UL Monroe (0-2) | ULM -12.5 | O/U 47.5

Pick: ULM 34, SE Louisiana 17 — ULM covers

Former UAB interim HC Bryant Vincent's ULM squad is 0-2 and searching for its first win. Southeastern Louisiana should provide the opportunity.

Delaware State at USF (2-0) | USF -37.5 | O/U 62

Pick: USF 45, Delaware State 6 — USF covers

USF won outright at Army 28-24 last week.

Nicholls State at Sam Houston (0-2) | SHSU -19 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Sam Houston 48, Nicholls State 13 — Sam Houston covers

Sam Houston is 0-2 SU but 2-0 ATS — covered in both losses (within 3 of Troy, within 6 of Tulsa). Second-year HC Phil Longo.

UT Martin at Memphis (2-1) | MEM -35 | O/U 56.5

Pick: Memphis 49, UT Martin 10 — Memphis covers

Memphis lost 38-20 at Boise State after leading 20-17 at halftime — held to 163 yards in the second half.

East Texas A&M at Tulsa (2-0) | No line

Pick: Tulsa 34, East Texas A&M 7

Tulsa beat Oklahoma State 24-10 (first back-to-back wins over OKState since 1952), then beat Sam Houston 23-17. East Texas A&M (formerly Texas A&M-Commerce) is FCS.

South Dakota at Boise State (1-1) | BSU -24 | O/U 56.5

Pick: Boise State 41, South Dakota 14 — Boise State covers

South Dakota is ranked No. 11 in the FCS Coaches Poll at 3-0. Boise RB Dylan Riley ran for 206 yards against Memphis.

Montana at Oregon State (0-2) | ORST -18 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Oregon State 37, Montana 16 — Oregon State covers

Oregon State is 0-2 SU but 2-0 ATS — covered in both losses. Montana QB Keali'i Ah Yat threw for 4,070 yards and 33 TDs in 2025. Montana went 13-2 and reached the FCS semifinals.