The Really Big Preview: Sam Houston at Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State hosts Sam Houston on Saturday with a chance to stay unbeaten in Conference USA. The Bearkats arrive under new leadership with a season to salvage in its final month.

1. Game details

• Matchup: Sam Houston (1-7, 0-4 CUSA) at Jacksonville State (6-2, 4-0 CUSA)
• Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026
• Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT
• TV: CBSSN
• Location: Burgess-Snow Field at AmFirst Stadium (22,500), Jacksonville, Ala.
• Line: Jacksonville State -15 to -17.5 (varies by book)
• Over/Under: 45.5-48.5 (varies by book)
• Note: Jacksonville State Homecoming

2. The stakes

Jacksonville State leads the all-time series 8-6 and has won three straight. Last year at Shell Energy Stadium, Garrison Rippa hit a 52-yard field goal as time expired to give the Gamecocks a 29-27 win — a game Sam Houston was seconds away from taking. In 2024 at AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville State won 21-11 behind Tyler Huff's 177 rushing yards and clinched a spot in the CUSA Championship Game.

Jacksonville State enters tied with Liberty atop the Conference USA standings. A win keeps the Gamecocks in position for a second straight conference championship game appearance and extends their conference winning streak. Jacksonville State holds 24 conference wins in CUSA — more than any other member.

Sam Houston sits last in Conference USA. A win would be the Bearkats' first in conference play and their first FBS victory of the season.

Jacksonville State has also clinched bowl eligibility for the fourth consecutive year at the FBS level, joining Marshall as the only programs to accomplish that in their first four FBS seasons.

3. The numbers

306.8 — Caden Creel's total offense yards per game. He is the only Conference USA player averaging 300 or more, and he leads the league in total offense by more than 900 yards.

0-for-10 — Sam Houston's fourth-down conversion rate, worst in CUSA and 137th nationally. The Bearkats have not converted a single fourth down all season.

0 — Jacksonville State's fumble recovery count in eight games. Charles Kelly said it is the first time in his career a team he has coached has gone eight games without recovering a fumble.

146.4 — Passing yards per game allowed by Sam Houston's defense, best in CUSA and fourth nationally. Opponents have been held under 200 passing yards in seven of eight games.

4. About Sam Houston

Sam Houston's lone win is against FCS Nicholls (Sam Houston 59, Nicholls 0) in Week 3. The Bearkats scored three points in three of their last four games — at Liberty (Liberty 35, Sam Houston 3), against Western Kentucky (WKU 16, Sam Houston 3) and at Missouri State (Missouri State 24, Sam Houston 3).

Phil Longo was dismissed on Oct. 28 after compiling a 3-17 record across parts of two seasons. Co-interim head coaches Eric Raisbeck (associate head coach/special teams coordinator) and Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay (defensive coordinator) took over that day. Offensive coordinator Zack Patterson calls plays. This is the new staff's first game together in these roles.

The defense has been the bright spot. Sam Houston's total defense improved by 145.4 yards per game from 2025 to 2026, and the unit holds opponents to a 31.1% third-down conversion rate — third in Conference USA and 16th nationally.

Since making the FBS transition, Sam Houston is 7-4 in November — its most successful regular-season month — compared to 8-25 from August through October.

5. About Jacksonville State

Kelly is 15-7 in his second year at Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks lost the season opener at North Dakota State (NDSU 33, JSU 7) and fell in a four-overtime game at Ohio (Ohio 29, JSU 27) but have won five of their last six, including a 24-0 shutout at New Mexico State.

The offense has gone 14 consecutive drives without a three-and-out entering this game. The defense has won the turnover battle in seven of eight games, though the overall turnover margin sits at -5 — the NDSU game (four turnovers lost, none gained) and the Ohio loss heavily skew that number.

Kelly's roster development is showing results. Roughly half of the 2026 signing class played in the New Mexico State game, including six true freshmen on defense at one point — a testament to what Kelly called a "maturity limit" rather than an age limit on playing time.

6. Key players to watch

Caden Creel, QB, Jacksonville State — One of 59 active FBS players with 5,000 or more career total offense yards. Named to the Maxwell Award Watch List. He is 6-0 in conference games when he has a rushing touchdown.

Deondre Johnson, WR, Jacksonville State — The 6-8 receiver commands two-high safety looks that open up the run game. Kelly: "When you watch the video and you watch him come off the ball and these guys are going to keep two high safeties back to cover him, well then it opens up the run game."

Dean Ford, LB, Sam Houston — The best tackler on either team by Pro Football Focus data: 82.7 PFF grade, 90.5 tackling grade and a 2.0% missed tackle rate. He has 48 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles.

Tim Burns Jr., WR, Sam Houston — The Bearkats' big-play threat with 18 catches for 392 yards (21.8 average) and three touchdowns, including an 81-yard score from Locke against New Mexico State.

7. Injury report / availability

Sam Houston

• QB Landyn Locke — Missed the Missouri State game with a leg injury. Limited in practice early in the week. Aughtry-Lindsay said Locke was "able to run around a little bit, throw the ball in individual periods" but "did not get a lot of work" with the offensive groups. Raisbeck said they "anticipate him getting back in the mix here the last couple practices." Expected to play, status worth monitoring at kickoff.
• QB DJ Bailey — Started at Missouri State in Locke's absence and went 20-of-35 for 258 yards with no interceptions.

Jacksonville State

• No injuries reported. The Gamecocks appear to be at full strength.

8. When Sam Houston has the ball

The PFF grades illustrate a clear mismatch. Jacksonville State's defense carries an 82.8 team grade against a Sam Houston offense grading 63.8 — a 19-point difference. The coverage matchup is even more pronounced: Jacksonville State's 90.2 coverage grade against Sam Houston's 65.4 passing offense grade, a gap of 24.8 points.

Caleb Nix anchors that coverage unit with an 83.7 PFF grade. On 20 targets this season, he has allowed a 44.2 passer rating — holding opponents to a 55.0% completion rate with zero touchdowns allowed. Walker O'Steen (80.4) has been out since Oct. 2 with a season-ending injury, but Tae Floyd (78.5) and JQ Brooks (77.3) give Jacksonville State three defenders grading above 77.0.

The Gamecocks have held three opponents under 100 passing yards this season, including New Mexico State at 29 yards — the fourth-fewest in program history. That is a challenge for a Sam Houston offense that generates most of its production through the air (246.9 yards per game, second in CUSA).

Sam Houston has allowed 24 sacks this season (last in CUSA), and the pressure rates in this matchup are nearly identical: Sam Houston's offensive line allows pressure on 28.7% of dropbacks while Jacksonville State's defense generates pressure at 28.2%. The Bearkats' three highest-graded offensive players by PFF are all linemen — Josiah Chenault (67.7), Graceson Spann (66.3) and Myles Joseph (66.0). No Sam Houston skill-position player with significant snaps grades above 63.6.

If Locke is less than fully healthy, the challenge compounds. The Sam Houston passing game that drives the offense's production faces a Jacksonville State coverage unit that grades among the best in the sport.

9. When Jacksonville State has the ball

The team-grade matchup is tighter here: Jacksonville State's 74.2 PFF offensive grade against Sam Houston's 75.1 defensive grade. The ground game creates the separation.

Jacksonville State's rushing offense grades 74.8 against a Sam Houston run defense grading 67.3. The Gamecocks average 171.9 rushing yards per game (second in CUSA) and posted a season-high 324 yards on 47 carries (6.9 per attempt) at New Mexico State. Creel drives the ground game with 126 carries for 713 yards and five touchdowns this season, and he has completed 67.0% of his passes for 1,741 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Sam Houston's defense has a clear strength in pass coverage: an 83.9 PFF coverage grade, with safeties Tyler Bailey (40.0 passer rating allowed on 22 targets) and Railyn Adams (56.7 passer rating on 18 targets) holding up well in coverage. Kelly acknowledged the challenge: "I think defensively they've been real good. I mean, they're 49th in the country in total defense."

The run defense is the vulnerability. Sam Houston allows 191.8 rushing yards per game (last in CUSA, 125th nationally), and the defensive line run defense grades are modest across the board — the 67.3 team run defense grade is the lowest unit grade on the Sam Houston defense.

Jacksonville State's offensive line has allowed eight sacks this season (fewest in CUSA) and a pressure rate of just 21.1%. Sam Houston generates pressure at 28.6%, but the Gamecocks' protection should hold. The Sam Houston pass rush (65.0 PFF grade) is the defense's weakest unit.

10. Sam Houston wins if

The Bearkats force turnovers and win the turnover battle. Since 2024, Sam Houston is 0-15 when the turnover margin is within one of even — worst in FBS. Flipping the takeaway column is the clearest path to competitiveness.

The passing game sustains drives. The Bearkats need Locke (or Bailey) to convert third downs at a rate better than the 35.4% they have managed this season (eighth in CUSA).

Jacksonville State's third-down defense allows opponents to convert at a 46.4% rate — worst in CUSA. That is a legitimate vulnerability in an otherwise dominant defensive profile and Sam Houston's best chance to sustain possessions.

The rushing defense keeps Jacksonville State under 100 yards on the ground. Since 2024, Sam Houston is 2-16 when allowing 100 or more rushing yards.

11. Jacksonville State wins if

The Gamecocks establish the running game early. Jacksonville State's most dominant performances this season have come when the rushing attack sets the tone.

The offense continues converting third downs. Jacksonville State leads CUSA at 47.3%, and sustaining drives keeps the defense fresh and the clock moving.

Creel avoids turnovers. Jacksonville State is 9-1 since 2024 when he does not throw an interception and 4-1 this season when the offense does not lose a fumble.

The defense maintains its second-half standard. Jacksonville State ranks tied for seventh nationally in second-half opponent scoring at 6.5 points per game. Sam Houston also averages 6.5 points in the second half — 137th nationally. If Jacksonville State leads at halftime, the data suggests it stays that way.

12. X factor

The coaching change. Raisbeck and Aughtry-Lindsay have restructured the Sam Houston operation in less than two weeks. Raisbeck manages practice flow and in-game decisions while Aughtry-Lindsay stays locked into the defense. The most intriguing adjustment: Aughtry-Lindsay, as the defensive coordinator, told the offensive staff what opposing defenses have struggled with over the past two years. "I went to Zack, and I told him, 'What gives us problems?'" he said. "A lot of those things are being implemented."

Kelly compared the preparation challenge to a bowl game: "You might see some things that you might not normally see." Whether the new staff brings a jolt of energy and schematic wrinkles or whether the instability compounds on the road remains the one variable the numbers cannot account for.

13. Coach speak

Charles Kelly, Jacksonville State: "They have good players. All you got to do is cut the video on and watch. They've got very good players. They played some people really tough. They had a chance to beat Troy at Troy. And Troy beat James Madison. They got basically the same team they had last year who beat Oregon State at Oregon State."

Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay, Sam Houston co-interim head coach: "He's probably one of the top players in our conference. He's thrown for over seventeen hundred yards. He's rushed for over seven hundred. ... The key is to stop number twelve, Creel, and he is a dynamic player. He can run the ball. He is good enough to beat you throwing the ball if you're not effective in coverage in all aspects."

14. The predictions

Source | Pick | Spread | O/U | Detail

Anniston Star | JSU 34-10 | JSU -17.5 | — | "Smells like a trap game" but Kelly's prep overcomes

PickDawgz (David Racey) | JSU covers | JSU -17.5 | 45.5 | SHSU lost last 9 as underdog

College Football Zone | JSU 31-13 | — | — | —

FanDuel/numberFire | JSU 84.3% | JSU -16.5 | 45.5 | —

Bleacher Nation | JSU covers | JSU -16.5 | U 48.5 | JSU 6-0 as ML favorite this season

March2ThePod (Cory) | JSU 30-10 | JSU -16.5 | U 48.5 | Bearkat blog; both hosts pick JSU

March2ThePod (Ben) | JSU 33-14 | JSU -16.5 | U 48.5 | —

Doc's Sports (Josh Schonwald) | SHSU +17.5 | SHSU +17.5 | 47.5 | Lone contrarian on the spread

BetMGM | JSU 79.2% | JSU -15 (68.9%) | 47.5 | JSU covered 6 of 8 at home

SportsGambler.com | JSU covers | JSU -17.5 | — | 60% est. probability

All 10 sources pick Jacksonville State to win. Nine of 10 pick the Gamecocks to cover. Doc's Sports is the lone contrarian, taking Sam Houston to cover at +17.5. Predicted scores from those offering them cluster between 30-34 for Jacksonville State and 10-14 for Sam Houston.

The spread varies meaningfully across books. BetMGM offers the tightest line at -15, FanDuel and Bleacher Nation sit at -16.5, and PickDawgz, Anniston Star, Doc's Sports and SportsGambler have it at -17.5. That 2.5-point range suggests the market has not fully settled.

The over/under ranges from 45.5 (FanDuel, PickDawgz) to 48.5 (Bleacher Nation). Among those taking a position on the total, the Under dominates — consistent with a matchup between two defenses that grade well in coverage by PFF.

PickDawgz notes that Jacksonville State has won the first half in four of its last five November games as a favorite. BetMGM's model shows the Gamecocks have covered the spread in six of their last eight home games and are 7-1 on the moneyline at home over that span. Sam Houston is 0-6 as an underdog this season, and the game total has gone Under in five of the Bearkats' last six road games.

15. Diehard bottom line

The transition to FBS has not gone how Sam Houston anticipated, after being a power in recent years in FCS. A road trip to Jack State is a challenging mission for co-interim head coaches and a team that seems to have fallen apart as the season has progressed. The other way to look at it is that the Bearkats have nothing to lose, and we have seen situations in the past where teams scored an upset or two after such a change. I don't think that will be the case here. All the matchups favor Jack State, and Charles Kelly's team seems to be in a groove as it charges toward a likely matchup with Liberty in the CUSA title game. Caden Creel is playing at an all-conference level, and he won't allow the Gamecocks to let up here.

DG6 No. 13 Jacksonville State (6-2, 4-0 CUSA) vs Sam Houston (1-7, 0-4 CUSA)

JXST -16.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: Jacksonville State 34, Sam Houston 13 — Jacksonville State covers

Season record:

• JSU: 6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS
• Overall: 229-71 SU, 156-134-5 ATS