The Really Big Preview: ULM at South Alabama — Week 5

South Alabama's defense gave up 390 rushing yards at Kentucky last week — three backs with 100-plus yards each — and now faces a ULM team that managed 54 rushing yards on 25 carries in a 45-17 loss to FAU. Both teams enter the Sun Belt Conference opener searching for fixes on the same side of the ball. The Jaguars are 13.5-point favorites at home on homecoming night.

Game Details

Matchup: ULM Warhawks (0-4, 0-0 Sun Belt) at South Alabama Jaguars (2-2, 0-0 Sun Belt)

Date: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026

Time: 6 p.m. CT

TV: ESPN+

Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Ala. (25,000)

Series: South Alabama leads 7-6

Special: Homecoming

Spread: South Alabama -13.5 (FanDuel)

Over/Under: 57.5 (FanDuel)

Moneyline: South Alabama -649 / ULM +460 (FanDuel)

The Stakes

Both teams open Sun Belt Conference play. South Alabama is 2-0 at home this season (39-14 over SE Louisiana, 41-36 over Ohio) and 0-2 on the road (28-24 at Tulane, 45-21 at Kentucky). Major Applewhite has talked about defending home field all week. "We've talked about being 3-and-0 at home," Applewhite said. "I don't think that's something we spent a lot of time on in the last five years that I've been here in terms of just talking about Hancock Whitney Stadium and what our crib means to us."

ULM is 0-4 — losses to Mississippi State (62-13), at UAB (26-20), SE Louisiana (38-35) and FAU (45-17). But Bryant Vincent insists the conference slate is a reset: "Preseason non-conference is behind us. We've been able to learn a lot about ourselves and now we know what it is. It's conference play."

South Alabama leads the series 7-6 and has won four of the last five meetings.

The Numbers

390 — Rushing yards Kentucky put on South Alabama's defense last week, with three backs over 100 yards each. Todd Orlando: "I haven't been associated with before in my career in terms of some of the explosive plays that we're giving up."

34:00 — South Alabama's average time of possession per game — No. 1 in the Sun Belt and No. 5 nationally. Vincent: "34 minutes time of possession, which is incredible."

23-of-29 — ULM QB Aidan Armenta's completion line against FAU, what Vincent called "probably his best game" outside of Mississippi State.

42.8 — Points per game allowed by ULM's defense — 138th nationally.

4-for-13 — ULM's third-down conversion rate against FAU. South Alabama's offense was converting 52.1% of its third downs through the first three games.

5 — ULM defensive starters lost to injury during the FAU game: James Smith (captain, defensive lineman), Jay Harper, Taj Overton, Marcus and Derek Omoregie. Vincent: "We had more injuries defensively in the first half than we had offseason."

About ULM

The Warhawks are 0-4 under second-year head coach Bryant Vincent (5-12 career). The losses tell different stories — the Mississippi State opener was a blowout, but ULM lost 26-20 at UAB (what Applewhite called "on the ropes at their place in Birmingham") and 38-35 to FCS opponent SE Louisiana before FAU pulled away in the second quarter (outscored 28-10 in that period alone, including a 73-yard punt return for a touchdown).

Applewhite warned his team not to look at records: "I see a good ball club. I see nine starters returning. ... I know people look at records, but most people don't know what they're looking at, to be honest with you."

Armenta has emerged as the starting quarterback after Austin Carlisle was hurt in the third quarter against SE Louisiana. Carlisle should be available this week, but Vincent expressed confidence in Armenta: "We've got all the confidence in the world in Aiden." The run game has been the primary concern — the offense averages 21.3 points per game (116th nationally).

Defensively, the injuries from the FAU game forced backups including Moses Madubuike (62 snaps), true freshman Gavin Howard and Jonathan Crain at corner into extended action. Those starters are day-to-day.

About South Alabama

The Jaguars are 2-2, with both wins at home and both losses on the road. Major Applewhite is in his third year as head coach (14-15 at South Alabama, 30-26 career). The non-conference schedule tested this team — a fourth-quarter loss at Tulane, a 41-36 shootout win over Ohio and the Kentucky collapse after leading 21-14 late in the second quarter.

Vincent broke down South Alabama's season film during his presser. The Tulane game: "They are up 24-21 with a minute and 40 seconds to go." The Kentucky game: "It's 21-14 with a minute 29 in the second quarter. They're up 21-14 ... to go on the road in an SEC environment and have that lead, tells you a lot about them."

Applewhite's assessment heading into league play: "I like this team. I'm not going to sit here and be over the top and sappy about it, but I like this team. I think there's a level of maturity and there's a level of listening and responding to things."

The offense ranks 36th nationally in rushing (194.3 yards per game) and leads the Sun Belt in time of possession. PJ Martin leads the backfield with 270 yards and 4 touchdowns on 63 carries. The quarterback situation remains fluid — Jared Hollins started the last two games and has 458 passing yards and 3 touchdowns; Bishop Davenport (40-of-59, 450 yards, 3 TDs through two starts) is working to return.

The defense gave up 30.8 points per game through four weeks (118th nationally), and Orlando called the Kentucky performance fixable but unprecedented in his career: "It's assignment. That's essentially what you saw on the tape — fundamentals."

Key Players to Watch

Aidan Armenta, QB, ULM (#10) — Fourth-year quarterback. Vincent: "I thought he made a lot of good decisions. He pulled it down a couple times when it wasn't there and extended some plays." With Carlisle also available, ULM could use both.

PJ Martin, RB, South Alabama (#0, 5-10, 205, Sr.) — Leads the team with 270 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns on 63 carries. Part of the three-back rotation with Keenan Phillips and Trae'von Dunbar that Vincent called "tough, physical."

Keenan Phillips, RB, South Alabama (#3, 5-10, 185, Jr.) — Preseason All-Sun Belt Second Team. Paul Hornung Award Honor Roll after a 116-yard, 1-TD performance against Ohio in Week 3.

Jared Hollins, QB, South Alabama (#7, 6-4, 215, Jr.) — Has started the last two games after Bishop Davenport's injury. Applewhite: "He's played really well. ... When you get your opportunity, go make the most of it."

Everett Hunter, TE, South Alabama (#83, 6-4, 250, 5th) — Vincent recruited Hunter when Vincent was at New Mexico: "We recruited and signed him in New Mexico. He's a good player."

Jeremiah Jones-Thomas, WR, South Alabama — Leads the team with 19 receptions and 236 receiving yards through four games.

Injury Report / Availability

ULM (from Vincent presser)

Player | Pos | Status | Notes

Austin Carlisle | QB | Probable | "Austin Carile is going to be back this week." Banged up in 3rd Q vs. SE Louisiana.

James Smith | DL | Day-to-day | Captain, "one of our best D lineman." Lost on first drive vs. FAU.

Jay Harper | DB | Day-to-day | Lost during FAU game.

Taj Overton | — | Day-to-day | Lost during FAU game.

Derek Omoregie | DE | Day-to-day | Lost during FAU game.

Vincent: "I'd like to be able to sit here and say they're going to be back and they're playing but we don't know yet."

South Alabama (from Applewhite presser)

Player | Pos | Status | Notes

Bishop Davenport | QB | Day-to-day | Has missed last two games. "Bishop's trying to get back as healthy as he can."

When ULM Has the Ball

ULM averages 143.3 rushing yards per game (98th nationally), but the FAU performance exposed the floor. Armenta has thrown for 493 yards with 3 touchdowns and can extend plays with his legs.

The receiving corps is led by Marcellus Jackson (21 receptions, 141 yards). LT Robinson provided the explosive play against FAU — a long touchdown pass — and figures into the downfield game plan.

Vincent identified the core problem: "You can't just rely on the passing game or just rely on the rushing attack. ... Sometimes a dirty three — three yards is a big deal and we've got to be able to get those."

Orlando warned that ULM will attack the same weaknesses Kentucky exposed: "This is a team that's going to run the football now. They're going to watch that tape and they're going to feel they can have the same results and we got to get it shored up."

When South Alabama Has the Ball

The three-back rotation of Martin, Phillips and Dunbar runs behind an offensive line Vincent called "tough, physical," and Vincent singled out Hollins as a quarterback who "has come in and played at a high level."

Applewhite wants better third-quarter starts after the Jaguars have been outscored in the period in three of four games: "We haven't played well to start off a third quarter yet."

ULM's defense enters this game with its starters uncertain and its backups having been carved up on third and fourth down by FAU. Vincent didn't shy away from the mismatch: "They're complete in all three phases and we've got to be complete in all three phases."

South Alabama Wins If

The three-back rushing attack grinds clock against a ULM defense that may be missing its best lineman and multiple starters, and Orlando's defense uses a week of film correction to cut the assignment breakdowns that turned the Kentucky game into a track meet. Tommy Perry's special teams units have a built-in edge against a ULM coverage group that has surrendered punt return touchdowns in consecutive weeks.

ULM Wins If

The five injured defensive starters come back healthy enough to play, and ULM's defense generates takeaways after recording zero against FAU. Armenta and Robinson connect on the kind of explosive downfield plays that kept the FAU game competitive in the first quarter, and the run game produces the dirty three-yard gains Vincent has demanded all week. South Alabama's third-quarter struggles give the Warhawks a window to close the gap.

X Factor

Bryant Vincent's South Alabama connections. Vincent worked at South Alabama for three years alongside special teams coordinator Tommy Perry, and during his weekly presser he broke down every South Alabama game this season play by play — the Tulane go-ahead score with 1:40 left, the Kentucky halftime lead, the Ohio win. That level of detail from an opposing coach is unusual, and it means South Alabama's tendencies are not a mystery to ULM's staff even if ULM's roster is short-handed.

Coach Speak

Major Applewhite, South Alabama, on ULM:

"I see a good ball club. I see nine starters returning. I know people look at records, but most people don't know what they're looking at, to be honest with you. ... You just cannot in this league look at the first four games and try to draw conclusions about what you're getting ready to go play."

Bryant Vincent, ULM, on South Alabama:

"South's a good team. Coach Applewhite does a great job. He's a great coach. Very detailed. ... They're averaging, I think, 34 minutes time of possession, which is incredible. That's number one in the league. It's number five in the country."

Todd Orlando, South Alabama, on fixing the defense for ULM:

"This is a team that's going to run the football now. They're going to watch that tape and they're going to feel they can have the same results and we got to get it shored up to make sure it's not out there again on Saturday."

The Predictions

Source | Pick | Score | Spread Pick

FanDuel (model) | South Alabama (79%) | — | SA -13.5

Doc Sports (Tony Sink) | South Alabama | — | SA -14.5

SportsGrid (model) | South Alabama | SA by 11 | ULM +13.5 (ATS)

YouWager | South Alabama | SA 42, ULM 21 | SA covers

Bleacher Report | South Alabama | SA 31, ULM 20 | —

Pro Football Network | South Alabama | SA 21, ULM 17 | —

Every available prediction picks South Alabama straight up. Score predictions range from a 4-point win (Pro Football Network) to 21 (YouWager).

Diehard Bottom Line

It hasn't been a good week for the Warhawks. Not only are they winless after four games, but they have lost 12 consecutive games dating back to last season. Then throw in this week that a member of the Louisiana Board of Regents suggested that ULM, Louisiana and Louisiana Tech all drop down to FCS. Ouch. That kind of talk doesn't help matters at all and makes a tough job even harder. With that said, ULM showed in its matchup with UAB that it can hang with a more talented team when it doesn't make mistakes. And South Alabama is definitely a more talented team than the Warhawks. It's homecoming for the Jaguars, and they'll put on a show for the home folks. South Alabama 35, UL Monroe 17

The pick: South Alabama -13.5

Season record (South Alabama picks):

• SU: 3-1
• ATS: 2-2