Jags Jungle picks: ULM at South Alabama

It may sound strange to say about a 21-45 loss, but South Alabama may have emerged from its game against Kentucky with even more reason for optimism about the rest of the season. The second half was a runaway for the Wildcats, but for the first half the Jaguars traded blows on an even keel with the SEC program and showed effectiveness on both sides of the ball.

A loss is a loss, though, and the Jags will take a 2-2 out-of-conference record into the final eight games of the season, all against peer programs in the Sun Belt Conference.

First up are the Warhawks of ULM. The program with the smallest budget in FBS football typically hovers around the bottom of college football, and their 0-4 record shows that this year is on track to be more of the same. Despite all of the challenges they face, the players of ULM and their coach, former USA quarterbacks coach and assistant head coach Bryant Vincent, will come to Mobile looking to right their ship even if they are a 14-point underdog.

The team at Jags Jungle weighs in on their chances:

Doug Konkel

Even though the Jags were pushed around and beat up in that second half against Kentucky, they emerged without any apparent serious injuries. They are expecting to even start getting some players back for this game, including the possible return of linebacker Caleb Dozier. Assuming Bishop Davenport will not be available for a third straight game, Jared Hollins will find himself at the helm of an offense that will be determined to run the ball, which the elements will call for as heavy rain is in the forecast.

Statistically, this game is a mismatch. ULM is one of the worst in the conference on offense (21.3 points and 344.5 yards per game) and defense (42.8 points and 497.3 yards allowed per game), while the Jaguars are holding their own with 31.3 points and 421.3 yards on offense and allowing 30.8 points and 402.3 yards to their opposition. South Alabama isn't setting the world on fire in ESPN SP+ metrics, ranking 121st in the country, but ULM is dead last at 138.

I could dive deeper, but I don't really see the purpose in it. I think if Davenport plays, the Jaguars win by 14 or more, but if it's Hollins the game stays a little closer. Still a Jaguar win but probably not a cover. Obviously, I'll be happy as long as USA starts 1-0 in conference and is on a path to bowl eligibility and perhaps the championship of the West. I believe that is what is going to happen.

Tres Harrison

Conference play! Homecoming! The pomp and circumstance of the week has been building to this Saturday. Years ago, I would have told you that scheduling a conference opener and a homecoming game for the same time was a horrible idea. This year, I'm not so sure. Being perfectly candid, ULM is flat out atrocious. They are 0-4 with one of those losses coming from Southeastern Louisiana, an FCS team the Jags trounced in the season opener. Don't get me wrong. What the Warhawks do well, they do really well. They pass well. They play clean games with low penalty yardage. But what they do well does not include winning games.

ULM's last outing was against Florida Atlantic where they got washed out in a 45-17 loss allowing the Owls to run up over 500 yards against them. ULM just doesn't seem to have much momentum on the season. Their passing game is nothing to make too much fun of, and their play is clean with few penalties, but the weather this weekend might make an air attack an improbability. That would be less than ideal for them, but who knows, South's run defense has been less than stellar as of late. They could be due for a breakout game.

If the weather does, in fact, keep the ball on the ground, expect a serious ground and pound gameplan. We have three incredible backs that we've been rotating with. I don't foresee, with the rainy weather, that we'll take many deep shots, but do expect the offense to test every corner of the field at some point. Ideally, we keep it on the ground and keep the clock moving. Should that happen, the score will end up being lower than what we're capable of due to time constraints.

I don't have much else to say about this matchup. I don't feel like I should have to say more, but this game will, like so many others do when conference play starts, come down to who wants the win more. Both teams are coming off of a pretty substantial loss, but the question remains: Do the Jags want to make a statement in the Sun Belt or do the Warhawks want to finally get one and win against a conference opponent. I know that I want it more.

Jaguars by 20. Go Jags!

Caleb Seaver

Last week may have been a big loss for the Jags, but if there is ever a "good loss" that would be one of them. South Alabama held the lead twice on the road against a now ranked Kentucky team, and was competitive through the first half. South Alabama showed that they can move the ball well, even against a really good defense. They showed that they can stop the pass and establish the run game even against a much more physical team. Not to say it was all good, the run defense struggled, and the Jags once again were gashed on a few explosive plays. This week, South Alabama will also again have to rely on a less proven quarterback in Jared Hollins, who has shown flashes of great play but definitely is still developing.

Meanwhile in Monroe this season could not have started any worse. The Warhawks enter this one winless, including an FCS loss to Southeastern Louisiana (who the Jags dominated in week one). Last week ULM was demolished by Florida Atlantic at home, and the coaching staff was arguing with fans on X. Needless to say there are a lot of issues with this ULM team. The defense is atrocious, especially against the run. The Warhawks are giving up nearly 250 yards per game on the ground. The pass defense is marginally better but has also not been tested, as ULM has gone down big early in 3 out of 4 games. The offense, not much better, especially the ground game. ULM has relied heavily on the quarterback run, as there is no clear number one running back. Aidan Armenta has not really progressed much at the quarterback position either. The one bright spot, ULM has limited turnovers and done well on special teams.

Now for this week, it's going to be a mess. Heavy rain is forecasted throughout the day on Saturday and Sunday, spoiling the homecoming weekend and will lead to a very wet game. The turf field will help things, but look for both teams to really have to rely on the run game. This favors South Alabama big time in a game that already feels lopsided on paper. For ULM to compete in this one, they will have to force a number of turnovers. If the Jags can limit the turnovers, they win easily. I'm taking the Jags in a soaking wet homecoming game 35-10.

South Alabama and ULM will kick off from Hancock Whitney Stadium at 6 p.m. CT on Saturday. You can catch the television broadcast led by Pat Greenwood on ESPN+ or hear the South Alabama broadcast on the Jag Radio Network with JT Crabtree and Company.

Radio: Varsity Network App, Hot 94.1 FM, JOX 660 AM, 104.1-HD3 FM

Sirius XM Channel 994 (channel will change weekly)

Website: http://usajags.co/ListenLive