The Really Big Preview: Troy at Missouri

By Tim Stephens

Troy walks into Memorial Stadium on Saturday night as a 27-point underdog against a ranked SEC opponent — a place where the Trojans have never won. The last three trips to Columbia produced losses of 37, 31 and 32 points. Gerad Parker knows exactly what his team is walking into, and he told the media as much this week: "In every facet of the game, they're superior talented." But Parker also said his 2-0 team has an identity crisis, and he thinks back-to-back road games are exactly the fix. The question is whether the fix can arrive before the Tigers expose it.

GAME DETAILS

Detail: Info

Matchup: Troy (2-0, 0-0 Sun Belt) at No. 20/22 Missouri (2-0, 0-0 SEC)

Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 19, 6 p.m. CT

Location: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Mo. (capacity 63,609)

TV: SEC Network+

Radio: 94.7 FM WTBF (Troy), 101.9 FM/AM 1490 WDHT (Dothan)

Series: Missouri leads 3-1 (Troy is 0-3 at Columbia)

Last meeting: Missouri 42, Troy 10 (Oct. 5, 2019, Columbia)

Spread: Missouri -26.5 to -27

Over/Under: 49.5 to 50.5

THE STAKES

Troy is 3-24 all-time against SEC opponents. The last SEC road win was at LSU in 2017.

Saturday is also the Memorial Stadium 100th Anniversary Game. Missouri will wear throwback 1920s-style uniforms and honor the 1960 national championship team — Dan Devine's 11-0 squad that beat Navy 21-14 in the Orange Bowl — at halftime. The announced crowd will extend Missouri's sellout streak to 23 consecutive, a program record.

For Troy, the stakes are simpler. Parker is 14-14 in three seasons. Competing for 60 minutes in this environment — against this talent — is the next step in establishing what Parker wants Troy to be.

NUMBERS THAT MATTER

• 515.5 — Missouri's total offense per game, 25th nationally. Troy's is 384.5 (81st).
• 75.0% — Austin Simmons' completion rate through two games (36-48, 544 yds, 7 TD, 0 INT). PFF passing grades of 91.5 and 90.8 in Weeks 1 and 2.
• 201.5 — Troy's rushing yards per game (41st nationally), the strength of the Troy offense.
• 31.0% — Troy's third-down conversion rate (T-107th). Missouri's third-down defense allows 21.4% (T-12th).
• 11 — Missouri's sacks through two games (11th nationally). Troy allowed 59 sacks last season, worst in the FBS.
• 12 — Troy's penalties against Alabama State. Parker called it "a complete undisciplined brand of football."

ABOUT TROY

Troy is 2-0 for the first time under Parker, but the head coach did not pretend the record tells the full story. After a 34-17 win over Alabama State, Parker opened his press conference by calling the performance "a step backwards." Troy scored on five of six first-half possessions. Then three points on the next seven. The culprits: three dropped passes, 12 penalties and throwing accuracy that Parker described as "a lack of attention to detail."

The running game has carried the offense. Jaheim Merriweather broke a 69-yard touchdown run against Alabama State — his third score of the game and the longest Troy run since 2023. Gavin Griffin has added 137 yards on 26 carries.

The passing game is the concern. Goose Crowder, a sixth-year quarterback from Gardendale, Ala., has completed 51% of his passes (26-of-51) for 368 yards and 4 TDs through two games. PFF graded Crowder at 88.8 as a passer against Sam Houston but 67.6 against Alabama State. He has not thrown an interception — but Troy went 0-4 last season in games where the quarterback threw one.

The defense has been strong. Troy ranks 24th in rushing defense (77.0 ypg), held Sam Houston to 38 rushing yards and has produced 5 sacks in two games. The Trojans have produced 19 defensive touchdowns since 2020, fourth most nationally.

New offensive coordinator Adam Austin, who led Tarleton State to the top scoring offense in the FCS last season (42.4 ppg), has installed a blended scheme that mixes RPOs with slow mesh concepts. Drinkwitz called the scheme "a very difficult scheme to go against."

ABOUT MISSOURI

Eli Drinkwitz is in his seventh year and has built Missouri into a consistent winner. The Tigers are 31-10 since 2023, the 11th-best record in the FBS. At home, Drinkwitz is 34-9 (.791). Missouri has won 25 consecutive non-SEC home games, a streak dating to 2017. Under Drinkwitz, the Tigers are 20-2 in regular-season non-conference games.

The offense runs through Simmons, an Ole Miss transfer. His 75.0% completion rate is the best start by a Mizzou QB in at least two decades — better opening numbers than Blaine Gabbert (66.7%), Chase Daniel (65.3%) or Drew Lock (53.4%) managed in their first two starts.

Wide receivers Donovan Olugbode (13 catches, 228 yards, 3 TDs) and Cayden Lee (11 catches, 209 yards, 2 TDs) have posted back-to-back 100-yard receiving games. They are the only pair of Power 4 receivers both ranked inside the nation's top 25 in receiving yards. Lee transferred from Ole Miss with Simmons.

Jamal Roberts has emerged as the lead back after serving as Ahmad Hardy's "1B" in 2025. Roberts rushed for 125 yards and a 64-yard touchdown against Kansas — surpassing the 63-yard clinching run he broke against the Jayhawks last season. "Just in case they forgot, I had to do it again," Roberts said.

The defense has held opponents to 226.5 total yards per game (18th nationally). Robert Woodyard Jr. forced two turnovers against Kansas, including an interception he returned 27 yards to the Kansas 12, setting up a touchdown two plays later.

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

Troy offense:

• Goose Crowder (#9, QB, 6-2, 214, 6th year) — 26-51-0, 368 yds, 4 TD. Dual-threat: Troy QBs Crowder and Tucker Kilcrease have combined for 7 rushing TDs (7th nationally).
• Jaheim Merriweather (#3, RB, 6-2, 210, 3rd year) — 19 att, 149 yds, 7.8 avg, 3 TD. PFF offensive grade improved from 62.1 (Week 1) to 79.6 (Week 2).
• TK Keyes (#8, WR, 6-2, 207, 3rd year) — 7 rec, 167 yds, 23.9 avg, 2 TD. Troy's top pass catcher.
• Fabian Rogosch (#85, TE, 6-5, 243, 5th year) — 4 rec, 45 yds, 1 TD. The Hamburg, Germany, native caught his first career touchdown vs Sam Houston.

Troy defense:

• Donnie Smith (#22, BAN, 6-4, 234, 4th year) — 2.0 sacks. PFF pass rush grades of 81.5 (Week 1) and 90.0 (Week 2) — 10 total pressures in two games.
• Keno Jones (#15, LB, 6-2, 228, 4th year) — 13 tackles, 4.5 TFL (T-7th nationally), 1.5 sacks.
• TJ Thompson (#4, WLB) — PFF overall defensive grades of 80.1 (Week 1) and 87.9 (Week 2).
• Ty Clemons (#11, DT, 6-3, 296, 6th year) — 5 tackles, 2.0 TFL, 1.0 sack vs Sam Houston.

Missouri offense:

• Austin Simmons (QB) — 36-48, 544 yds, 7 TD, 0 INT. Threw 5 TDs against pressure (T-2nd nationally).
• Donovan Olugbode (WR) — 13 rec, 228 yds, 3 TD. No. 18 nationally in receiving yards.
• Cayden Lee (WR) — 11 rec, 209 yds, 2 TD. No. 23 nationally in receiving yards. Missouri has 14 plays of 20-plus yards through two games, with Lee accounting for six of them.
• Jamal Roberts (RB) — 41 att, 172 yds, 2 TD.
• Cayden Green (LT) — 84.9 PFF pass-blocking grade vs Kansas. Parker: "They have a left tackle that's a draft pick."

Missouri defense:

• Robert Woodyard Jr. (LB) — 2 forced turnovers vs Kansas, including an INT returned 27 yards to set up a score. PFF run defense grade of 92.4 in Week 2. The defensive signal-caller.
• Nicholas Rodriguez (LB) — 11 tackles, 1.0 TFL, 1.0 sack. Leads the defense in total tackles.
• Daeden Hopkins (DE) — PFF pass rush grades of 75.0 (Week 1) and 90.3 (Week 2), with 8 pressures and 2 sacks vs Kansas. Grew up in Hermann, Mo., a town so small that, as Hopkins put it, "We have one chain restaurant in that town and it's Subway and actually just closed down."

INJURY REPORT

Troy:

• Two unnamed players left the Alabama State game with injuries. Parker was not optimistic: "We're certainly skeptical and probably aren't expecting great news."
• No further specifics provided.

Missouri:

• RB Ahmad Hardy — OUT (rehabbing, per Drinkwitz — "no update")
• DT Donta Simpson — AVAILABLE (returned Aug. 12 from illness that sidelined him for all of July conditioning; 1.5 sacks vs Kansas)

WHEN TROY HAS THE BALL

Troy's best path forward is the ground game. Merriweather and Griffin have combined for 286 rushing yards and provide the explosive-play threat that can flip field position and keep Missouri's offense on the sideline.

The challenge is everything else. When Troy cannot move the chains on the ground, Crowder will face a defensive front Parker described as "as long as you'll see and as talented a pass rushers as we'll see and have seen in a very long time." The interior linemen, in Parker's assessment, "are massive." The corners stand 6-4 and 6-2. "They're long and can run, will beat you up."

The PFF grades illustrate the mismatch up front. Hopkins posted a 90.3 pass rush grade against Kansas and was named SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week. Troy's interior offensive line has been inconsistent: right guard Patrick Screws Jr. posted PFF pass-blocking grades of 36.9 and 45.9 in the first two weeks. Left guard Luke Petit graded at 19.5 in pass blocking in Week 1 before improving to 72.6 in Week 2.

Crowder has been sacked three times in two games this year, but neither Sam Houston nor Alabama State fields the pass rush Missouri will bring.

The one wrinkle that concerns Drinkwitz: seam routes. He identified seam throws as "clearly an issue" for his defense against Kansas and warned that Crowder "is gonna dial up our seams if we don't get those corrected." If Troy can stay attached in the seam game, Drinkwitz said, "he's going to eat us alive."

WHEN MISSOURI HAS THE BALL

Simmons will see a Troy defense that ranks 24th in rush defense but 88th in pass yards allowed (220.0 ypg).

Drinkwitz said the key to Simmons' success is pocket cleanliness: "When we can keep the pocket clean for Austin, he can work through his reads. There's not a throw that he doesn't feel very comfortable making." Missouri's offensive line has given him that time: Green graded 84.9 in pass blocking vs Kansas, and center Dominick Giudice posted an 85.0 pass-blocking grade.

Troy's best chance to disrupt the pocket is Smith. Drinkwitz singled him out: "He's an excellent defensive, plays boundary. The jack position is what we would call him. And is a tremendous player and somebody that we have to reckon with."

The matchup between Olugbode and Lee against Troy's corners is the key individual battle in the secondary. Troy's pass defense ranks 88th.

The running game is more of a question. Roberts (4.2 ypc) has big-play ability, but Drinkwitz acknowledged the outside zone scheme is not yet operating on all five blockers. Troy's run defense is the one statistical advantage the Trojans hold.

TROY WINS IF ...

• The running game produces 150-plus yards with at least one explosive play (25-plus yards) that flips field position
• Crowder protects the football — zero turnovers
• Smith and Jones harass Simmons early and force negative plays before the pocket has time to develop
• Troy exploits Missouri's seam coverage issues and converts enough third downs to sustain drives
• The penalty problems disappear

MISSOURI WINS IF ...

• Simmons stays clean in the pocket and makes Troy's secondary defend the full width of the field
• The pass rush pressures Crowder into mistakes
• Roberts and the running game establish enough early to keep the defense honest
• Special teams avoid the blocked kicks and penalties that marred the Kansas win
• Missouri scores early and forces Troy to abandon the run

X FACTOR

Donnie Smith. The 6-4, 234-pound Troy edge rusher has the attention of both coaching staffs. Drinkwitz: "Surprised that he's still there to be honest." Parker has built his defense around Smith's ability to rush the passer from the boundary. Against Missouri's offensive line — anchored by Green on the left side — Smith is the one Troy defender who can disrupt possessions. If he can force a turnover or a critical negative play, Troy has a chance to hang around into the fourth quarter. If Green and the line neutralize him, Missouri's offense may operate without disruption all night.

COACH SPEAK

Parker on Troy's identity:

"Everybody wants to sit in first class and very few people want to pay for first class. Everybody wants to be a starter and a contributor. Not everybody wants to pay the price it takes to be a starter and a contributor."

Parker on needing the road trip:

"This team needs to travel together, be on a bus together, be on a plane together, be in a territory that's not at home and have to bond in a team hotel away from everything and some distractions. ... We need to find our football team."

Parker on Missouri:

"This is an upper-tier SEC team. Coach Drinkwitz is obviously in his seventh year and he has done a brilliant job in putting them in position to be a high-level team and it's on tape."

Drinkwitz on not getting comfortable:

"I think Kirby Smart said it yesterday. You're one week away from being humbled."

Drinkwitz on Simmons:

"He's in the defensive huddle telling them to get after it. Like the dude understands he's a part of this team."

Drinkwitz on Troy's Donnie Smith:

"I think Donnie Smith is an outstanding player, surprised that he's still there to be honest. He's an excellent defensive, plays boundary ... and is a tremendous player and somebody that we have to reckon with."

THE PREDICTIONS

Source | Pick | Detail

FanDuel numberFire | Missouri | 96% win probability

Bleacher Nation | Missouri | Over 50.5

The Spread | Missouri -27 | Market question is margin, not outcome

BetMGM | Missouri -27 | —

Covers.com consensus | Missouri ATS | 60% Missouri ATS, 73% over

Moneyline range: Missouri -4545 to -6500 / Troy +1300 to +1900. Public betting splits show 61% of spread tickets on Troy. Troy's under has hit in the Trojans' last 8 games overall, last 5 against winning teams, last 4 road games and last 4 against SEC opponents.

DIEHARD BOTTOM LINE

Missouri is the better team at every position. Parker said so himself. The Tigers have more talent, more depth, a better quarterback, a home crowd extending a program-record sellout streak and a coach with a 34-9 home record. Troy has won one game in this series — the 2004 upset at home in Troy, Ala., when the Trojans knocked off No. 19 Missouri 24-14. That was 22 years ago. Every trip to Columbia has been a blowout.

What Troy does have is a coaching staff that refuses to treat 2-0 like a success. Parker was harder on his team after a 17-point win than most coaches are after a loss. That self-awareness, combined with a defensive front anchored by Smith and Jones and a ground game capable of explosive plays through Merriweather, gives Troy enough tools to compete for stretches. Whether competing for stretches becomes competing for four quarters depends on whether Troy can find the identity Parker says it's missing — and whether they can find it before 63,609 fans in black and gold make the search a lot louder.

Straight-up pick: Missouri 41, Troy 17

Against-the-spread pick (Missouri -27): Missouri covers

Season picks record: Troy 0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS | Overall 51-10 SU, 38-23 ATS