The Really Big Preview: UAB at Illinois

LEDE

UAB opens the 2026 season with a Thursday night, national-TV opportunity at Illinois. It is the Blazers' first game against a Big Ten team since 2012 when they went to Columbus and hung in with Urban Meyer's Ohio State Buckeyes before falling 29-15.

GAME DETAILS

Matchup: UAB (4-8 in 2025) at Illinois (9-4 in 2025)

Date: Thursday, Sept. 3

Kickoff: 8 p.m. CT / 9 p.m. ET

Location: Gies Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Ill. (60,670)

TV: Big Ten Network

Spread: Illinois -28.5

Over/Under: 56.5

Series: First meeting

THE STAKES

This is Game 1, officially, of the Alex Mortensen era. UAB goes on the road to carry the American's banner against a team most prognosticators expect to finish in the top half of the Big Ten. For the Blazers, there is nothing to lose. They are a big underdog. Few outside the program expect a quick turnaround. They do not know what they do not know — and that can be a dangerous thing.

For Illinois, it is about taking care of business through the first month before a Big Ten opener on the road at No. 1 Ohio State on Sept. 26. The Illini's recent history against Group of 6 opponents is a mixed bag — a combined 68-9 margin across the last two seasons, but just 30-28 over Toledo and 23-17 over FAU in 2023. Illinois' last loss to a non-power conference team was 37-30 to UTSA in 2021.

UAB and Illinois have never played. Illinois is paying UAB a $1.125 million guarantee.

THE NUMBERS

62 — Newcomers on UAB's roster. Forty-three transfers and 19 true freshmen. The Blazers return just 35% of production — 125th nationally.

0-4 — UAB's all-time record against the teams now in the Big Ten (0-2 vs. Big Ten teams at the time of the meeting). Since The Return in 2017, the Blazers are 0-9 straight up against Power 4 opponents — but have covered the spread in three straight.

27,366 — Career defensive snaps on UAB's roster. Per ESPN Stats, no team in the country has more to open the season. Grantham brought experience — 33 of the 62 newcomers play defense, including 27 transfers.

37 — Wins for Bret Bielema at Illinois in five seasons, the most by a head coach in his first five years in program history. Consecutive seasons of at least nine wins for the first time in program history.

12 — Interceptions thrown by Illinois over the last two seasons — fewest in the Big Ten. The Illini went 15-2 when committing zero or one turnover. UAB was minus-12 in turnover margin in 2025.

ABOUT UAB (Visitor)

UAB went 4-8 in 2025, Trent Dilfer's last season — a tenure that ended midseason when then-athletic director Mark Ingram fired him after a 2-4 start. Offensive coordinator Alex Mortensen took over as interim and the program shifted immediately. In his first game, a 23.5-point home underdog against No. 22 Memphis, Ryder Burton made his first career start and went 20-of-27 for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 31-24 upset — the largest upset of a ranked team in American Conference history. The Blazers won again at Tulsa to close the season, their first road win since the 2022 Bahamas Bowl. Mortensen was named permanent head coach in December.

He inherited a program in need of a full rebuild. Forty-three portal additions and 19 true freshmen make up a roster that returns just 35% of its production — 125th nationally. Mortensen spent nine years at Alabama under Nick Saban working under Lane Kiffin, Brian Daboll, Mike Locksley, Steve Sarkisian and Bill O'Brien. He is building an identity rooted in physicality and the run game. Center Adam Lepkowski — PFF's top-graded center in the American, top 50 nationally, Rimington Trophy watch list — anchors the interior alongside guard Calib Perez, who entered the portal and came back. Roderick Robinson II, a 235-pound Georgia transfer and former 4-star who caught the opening touchdown in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama, leads a four-deep backfield that includes Coastal Carolina's leading rusher (Ja'Vin Simpkins) and a two-school veteran in Bam McReynolds.

The receiver corps is the position group most likely to limit the offense. Iverson Hooks (72 receptions, 927 yards) transferred to Oregon. Brandon Hawkins Jr. graduated. Together, the departed receivers accounted for 113 catches, 1,467 yards and 12 touchdowns. Ty Mims (96 career catches at Southern Miss) is the most proven option. Kaleb Brown, the former Ohio State recruit who is listed as a starter on the Week 1 depth chart, missed time in spring but Mortensen said Monday he is "coming back in a really good way" and is expected to play. Brown is from Chicago and had 7 catches for 71 yards against Illinois while at Iowa in 2023. Tight end Antonio Ferguson, projected for 30-35 catches by the Birmingham Banner's Steve Irvine, may need to absorb receiving production the wideout room cannot provide.

On defense, coordinator Todd Grantham — 35 years of experience, nine as an SEC coordinator at Georgia, Florida and Mississippi State — built the entire unit from the portal. Thirty-three of the 62 newcomers play defense. There are zero returning full-time starters. Per ESPN Stats, no team in the country has more career defensive snaps on its roster to open the season (27,366) — Grantham brought experience, even if none of it has played together. Linebacker Ike Esonwune, who played for Grantham at Oklahoma State and already knows the system, is the defensive centerpiece. Corner Darrell Sweeting (Marshall) was the best defensive player on the field in spring. Mortensen said Monday the defense has been "a challenge to practice against for the offense" — "iron sharpening iron." The unit is bigger and more physical than anything UAB has fielded since the Bill Clark era — but it has never played a snap together in a game that counts.

SP+ projects 4.1 wins. Vegas sets the over/under at 3.5. Every projection says rebuild. Every projection also says the pieces exist for more than the numbers suggest.

ABOUT ILLINOIS (Home)

Illinois went 9-4 in 2025 — its second straight season of at least nine wins under Bret Bielema, a first in program history. Bielema's 37 wins in five seasons are the most by any head coach in his first five years at Illinois, surpassing Mike White's 34 from 1980-84. He is the first head coach in program history to win five or more games in each of his first five seasons in Champaign. The Illini opened 2026 receiving votes in both the Coaches Poll and AP Top 25.

The offensive overhaul starts with quarterback Katin Houser, a well-traveled signal caller (Michigan State to East Carolina to Illinois) with 26 career starts who was named team captain and is on the Manning Award watch list. At ECU in 2025, Houser threw for 3,300 yards with 19 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while adding 9 rushing touchdowns. Coordinator Barry Lunney — the longest-tenured offensive coordinator in the Big Ten — said the range of experiences has weathered him into a quarterback who will not be rattled. Under Lunney, the offense has improved every season since his arrival (24.2, 24.5, 28.3, 29.4 points per game). The running game features Ca'Lil Valentine (Doak Walker Award watch list) and captain Aidan Laughery. The Illini committed just 12 turnovers over the last two seasons — fewest in the Big Ten.

The losses are real. Top receiver Jayshon Platt (720 yards, Biletnikoff Award watch list) is out for Week 1 and may not return until Week 3-4. Wide receiver Alex Perry is done for the season. The tight end room lost three players for the year before the opener — BJ Thurman, Tanner Hollinger and Grant Smith. Hudson Clement, one of the top two receivers, is back in practice after a soft-tissue issue. Three Illini were selected in the 2026 NFL Draft, including second-round linebacker Gabe Jacas.

The defensive transition carries its own questions. Bobby Hauck came out of retirement — he un-retired from Montana five days after stepping down — to install a 3-3-5 scheme. This is the first game in that system. Safety Matthew Bailey, the team's leading tackler in each of the past two seasons, is the defensive anchor. He is a two-time All-Big Ten selection on the Bednarik Award watch list. DT Darrell Prater transferred in from Jacksonville State with 63 tackles, 8.0 TFL and 5.5 sacks across 39 career games. Illinois returns 7 of 15 starters (4 on offense, 3 on defense) — more turnover than expected from a 9-win team, but Bielema has signed five straight top-50 recruiting classes, including the highest-rated class in program history in 2026 (No. 21 nationally per 247Sports).

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

Ryder Burton, QB, UAB (#5, R-Jr., 6-2, 200) — His first career start was a 20-of-27, 251-yard, 3-TD upset of No. 22 Memphis as a 23.5-point underdog. That was five games ago. He has 62 career completions on 98 attempts (63.3%) with 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. The ceiling shown in the Memphis game and the floor shown in the games after it are the entire question for this offense.

Roderick Robinson II, RB, UAB (#2, R-Jr., 6-1, 235) — Georgia transfer. Former 4-star from Lincoln HS in San Diego who scored 39 touchdowns as a high school senior. Caught the opening touchdown in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. He is the kind of back the American Athletic Conference doesn't usually see — 235 pounds, SEC speed, healthy after an injury-limited Georgia career. Gets the first carry.

Katin Houser, QB, Illinois (R-Sr., 6-3, 225) — Michigan State to East Carolina to Illinois. Twenty-six career starts. At ECU in 2025: 3,300 yards, 19 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 65.9% completions, plus 9 rushing touchdowns. Lunney said his experience — "blowouts, getting blown out, four-touchdown games, three-interception games, benched, elevated" — has weathered him. Named captain.

Matthew Bailey, S/Hybrid, Illinois (6-2, 225) — Team's leading tackler each of the past two seasons (185 career tackles, 4 INT). Two-time All-Big Ten. Bednarik Award watch list. In Bobby Hauck's 3-3-5 scheme, his role could expand.

INJURY REPORT / AVAILABILITY

UAB:

• Kaleb Brown (WR, Ohio State/Iowa) — AVAILABLE. Listed as starter. Mortensen: "Caleb is really coming back in a really good way from a health standpoint. ... We expect him to be able to help us." Said Brown has chemistry with the QBs and "no moment is really ever too big for him."
• Nigel Tate (DT, 6-3, 330) — OUT. Still rehabbing Achilles injury that cost all of 2025. Per DL Noah Nelson: Tate is not practicing but still leading — comes to stretch, calls players' phones, gave out play calls during player-led OTAs. Nelson: "When we get these pieces that we already have ready and mobile, it'll be crazy."
• Jaylen Elder (WR) — Not mentioned in Monday presser. Not listed on two-deep. Likely unavailable.

Illinois:

• Jayshon Platt (WR, FAU transfer) — OUT Week 1. 720 receiving yards in 2025. Biletnikoff Award watch list. Could return Week 3-4.
• Daniel Brown (LB) — OUT Week 1.
• Alex Perry (WR, FIU transfer) — OUT for season.
• BJ Thurman (TE, JUCO transfer) — OUT for season. Jones fracture. Was No. 1 JUCO TE in the country.
• Tanner Hollinger (TE) — OUT for season.
• Grant Smith (TE) — OUT for season.
• Hudson Clement (WR) — AVAILABLE. Back in practice after soft-tissue issue. Senior Bowl 300 selection.
• Robert Edmonson (LB) — AVAILABLE. Back in practice.
• Xavier Scott (DB) — AVAILABLE. Comeback Player of the Year watch list. Missed all but 3 games in 2025.

Note: Illinois has lost three tight ends for the season (Thurman, Hollinger, Grant Smith) before Week 1.

WHEN UAB HAS THE BALL

The identity starts at the line of scrimmage. Mortensen wants to run the football behind Lepkowski and Perez, rotate Robinson, Simpkins and McReynolds, control the clock and shorten the game. That is the design. Whether it works against Illinois' front depends on two things: the new tackles and the turnover margin.

Barrett Maddox, the 44th-ranked JUCO transfer, is listed as the starting right tackle. Payton Kirkland, the former Texas/Colorado recruit who worked his weight down from 350 to the 315 range, starts at left tackle. Neither has started a full season at this level. Mortensen said Monday that the line is "very competitive" and that UAB will "probably play a lot of guys Thursday" — only Lepkowski appears locked into a starting spot. Some linemen are "beat up and have been gaining ground" but have not accumulated enough reps to start yet. Bobby Hauck's 3-3-5 will bring pressure from angles this offensive line has never seen together. If the edges hold, the interior — Lepkowski and Perez, 39 combined career starts — can create lanes for Robinson to punish a defense in its first game in a new scheme.

The passing game hinges on Burton's discipline. Burton described his offensive philosophy Monday as "death by a thousand cuts" — nick the defense consistently, stay efficient on first down, end every possession in a kick, and know when to "pull out the machete" for the big play. He pointed to the Rice game last year as a turning point: "I feel like I tried to make something happen that wasn't there." Mortensen's system produced Jacob Zeno's 73.6% completion rate in 2023. It is built for quick decisions, play-action off the run game and tight end targets in the zones between linebackers and safeties. Ferguson at tight end and Mims underneath are the highest-percentage options. Brown, if healthy, gives Burton a receiver who has played in this stadium before — 7 catches against Illinois while at Iowa in 2023. Illinois committed just 12 turnovers in two seasons and went 15-2 when committing one or fewer. UAB was minus-12 in turnover margin in 2025. If Burton presses and gives Illinois short fields, the margin balloons. If he operates within the system and lets the running game carry the load, UAB stays in this game.

The wild card is Mortensen's scheme. Hauck called UAB "a hard prep" and pointed to "exotic personnel groups and formations." Multiple tight end sets — Ferguson, Sean Persson (Burton's personal recruit from their Utah high school circuit) and Scott Isacks — stress linebackers and safeties in ways Illinois may not have repped extensively against a 3-3-5 look that is brand new to everyone in the building. Mortensen's play-calling variety is a genuine equalizer if UAB can stay on schedule early.

WHEN ILLINOIS HAS THE BALL

The question is not whether Illinois moves the ball. It is whether Grantham's defense — 27 transfers from nine-plus programs — can limit damage, force a few stops and keep this from becoming a track meet UAB cannot win.

Houser is the kind of quarterback who tests a new defense's communication. Twenty-six career starts. Nine rushing touchdowns at ECU. He has seen everything and will not be rattled by crowd noise or blitz pressure. Lunney's offense has improved every year — 24.2, 24.5, 28.3, 29.4 points per game — and has the schematic complexity to probe the gaps in a secondary that has never lined up together.

The Illini will be without Platt (720 receiving yards, Biletnikoff watch list), Perry (out for the season) and three tight ends. That thins the skill group significantly. Hudson Clement's return to practice is critical — he and Collin Dixon become the primary targets. Valentine and Laughery carry the running game. If Illinois' depleted receiving corps forces Houser to hold the ball, Grantham's edge rushers — Blanche Gold (7.5 sacks, 14 TFL from Morgan State), Tylin Jackson (3.5 sacks, 55 tackles from Eastern Washington) and Marlin Dean — have the production to capitalize.

Grantham's scheme will be aggressive. He wants to affect the quarterback — "move them off a spot, hit them, disrupt them," as Mortensen described the philosophy. Esonwune knows the system from Oklahoma State and sets the communication. Sweeting and McKenzie are the best cover players in the secondary. The front rotates deep — Burton said the D-line is eight deep: "We got four guys that can play, legitimately play, and then when those four get tired, we got four behind them." DL Noah Nelson described how interior pressure from that depth enables edge rushers Marlon Daniels and Chris Burgess to win one-on-ones: "The guy inside has to be elite. We have an elite group of interior." Grantham said players who have "earned more reps than maybe I anticipated" give him the ability to keep fresh pass rushers on the field in the fourth quarter.

The concern is the middle of the field. Byard and Esonwune are solid at inside linebacker, but the depth behind them is thin. If Illinois runs tempo and forces UAB to defend without substitution, the linebacker depth becomes a liability. And if the secondary's communication breaks down — a real risk for a group from Sacramento State, Oklahoma State, Marshall, Memphis and Harding playing its first game together — Houser has the experience to find the open man before Grantham can adjust.

UAB WINS IF

• Illinois underestimates a team with this many unknowns and makes early mistakes that give the Blazers confidence to hang around
• The Blazers win the turnover battle. UAB was minus-12 in 2025. Illinois went 15-2 when committing one or fewer turnovers. This is the game within the game
• The offensive line — Maddox and Kirkland at tackle, Lepkowski and Perez inside — holds up well enough to establish the running game and keep Burton from facing long-distance third downs
• Grantham's defense forces a takeaway in the first half that changes field position and gives the offense a short field before the game gets away from them
• Mortensen's play-calling variety — the multi-TE sets, the personnel groupings Lunney called "exotic" — creates confusion in Hauck's first game running a 3-3-5

ILLINOIS WINS IF

• The Illini play a clean game and win the line of scrimmage as expected. Illinois does not need to be spectacular. It needs to avoid the kind of letdown performances that produced 30-28 over Toledo and 23-17 over FAU in 2023
• Houser manages the game efficiently, avoids turnovers and lets the running game with Valentine and Laughery control the clock
• The defensive front pressures Burton into the kind of forced throws that produced 5 interceptions in limited 2025 action outside the Memphis game
• Illinois exploits the middle of the field where UAB's linebacker depth is thin behind Esonwune and Byard
• The Illini's talent advantage wears UAB down in the second half as depth takes over on both sides of the ball

X FACTOR

Ryder Burton's confidence. His experience is limited — 62 career completions, two starts, five interceptions in the games that were not the Memphis upset. But confidence is not something Burton lacks. His team feeds off his ability to inspire belief and shake off setbacks. Mortensen recruited him specifically because "he loves football, I love football, we love scheme" — a quarterback who can visualize the play before the snap. Burton called Mortensen "if Einstein were to be a football coach" — not a statement about knowledge, but about communication: "What Coach Mort does a great job of is simplifying the complicated." Mortensen's assessment in return: "You want a quarterback to have the game of a player, but the mind of a coach. And I think he really embodies that." The sample size is small. But Burton sounds like a quarterback who has processed his mistakes — he named the Rice game specifically as a moment when he pressed and learned from it — and Mortensen says he has physically improved, calling him "even a better athlete, a better thrower of the football, more skillful" after a full offseason with strength coach Lyle Henley. If the Memphis performance is closer to his norm than the aberration the stats suggest, he could make this interesting. A composed Burton who operates within Mortensen's system, takes what the defense gives him and avoids the turnover that blows the game open is the single biggest variable in whether this stays competitive or gets away early.

COACH SPEAK

Alex Mortensen, UAB:

"Make it about us. Obviously we have to study our opponent and do a great job preparing for them and then adapting as the game goes on, but first and foremost, we need to prepare in a manner in which we make sure we're controlling the things we can control."

On Ryder Burton: "When Ryder plays within himself, I think he's a great player." And: "One of the guys I used to work with, he used to say, 'You want a quarterback to have the game of a player, but the mind of a coach.' And I think he really embodies that."

On the defense: "They've been a challenge to practice against for the offense. There's really been some iron sharpening iron there, where it's been very competitive every day."

On the offensive line: "The offensive line is very competitive. We probably will play a lot of guys Thursday and through the course of the season."

On the running back room: "I feel very good about our running back room. We've got a lot of depth there, a lot of guys that can help us and a lot of guys that can play. If you even go back to our time in Alabama, we've always played a lot of backs."

Bret Bielema, Illinois:

"I think for Alex, you know, just knowing his dad — ... super impressed with him as a young coach. For him to take over that program last year after getting like two and four after he took over, his offensive touch and what they've done offensively at that place since he's been there has been pretty impressive. I think we've got an immense challenge, especially on the defensive side of the ball."

Barry Lunney, Illinois OC (on UAB's new DC, Todd Grantham):

"A defensive coordinator that is recognized nationally for his work. ... Somebody being in the SEC myself for several years, I knew who he was."

"I played UAB when I was in the conference at UTSA, and without question, the best defense in the league at that point in time. Physical, physical."

Bobby Hauck, Illinois DC (on UAB's offense):

"They're a hard prep. Coach Mortensen has done a great job as a play caller. ... They've got a lot of variety. They do a lot of things that are kinda exotic in terms of personnel groups, formations. They give you a lot of things to prepare for."

Hauck (on the defense):

"I wanna see them fly around. I wanna see them play hard. ... I wanna be physical, be aggressive. I believe, coming from our head coach, that's the Illini brand, and that's how we wanna play defense."

THE PREDICTIONS

Source | Pick | Score | ATS | Notes

ESPN FPI | Illinois | — | — | Illinois 95.2% win probability.

247Sports (staff avg) | Illinois | 40-12 | — | Six writers, range 34-10 to 45-14. Margin avg: 28.3.

College Football News | Illinois | 47-10 | Illinois -28.5 | ATS confidence 3.5/5. Expects Illinois to "flirt with 300 rushing yards."

Sports Illustrated | Illinois | — | UAB +27.5 | Notable dissent on spread. Cites Illinois' 120th-ranked defensive success rate in 2025 and loss of two best defenders to NFL Draft.

Dimers | Illinois | 39-14 | — | Computer model. Illinois 94% win probability.

Underdog Dynasty | Illinois | 38-17 | — | UAB has "enough intriguing pieces" but 62 newcomers make cohesion the question.

Champaign Room | Illinois | 38-10 | Illinois -27.5 | Illinois beat writer. Under 54.5.

FanDuel/numberFire | Illinois | — | — | Illinois 97.3% win probability.

Line: Illinois -27.5 to -28.5 (moving) | O/U: 54.5-56.5

Consensus: Every outlet picks Illinois. Score predictions range from 34-10 to 47-10. ATS is split — most lean Illinois covers, but SI takes UAB with the points, citing defensive concerns. The Diehard pick of UAB covering by 8.5 would be the most bullish on UAB of any published prediction.

Phil Steele trends: UAB has lost 6 straight road openers (1-5 ATS). Since The Return in 2017, UAB is 0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS vs. Power 4 — but has covered in three straight against P4 opponents. Illinois has won 11 consecutive nonconference home games and 12 of its last 14 home games overall.

DIEHARD BOTTOM LINE

This UAB team is better than anything that took the field during the Dilfer era. The vibe from fall camp is not a mirage — this roster is more together, more talented and more focused than it has been since 2022. Todd Grantham's defense is bigger and more physical. The running back room is deeper than any in the American. The coaching staff knows what it is building. But translating that into a road season opener against one of the better teams in the Big Ten is a tall order, especially with an offensive line still sorting out its edges. Illinois protects the football as well as anyone in the conference and has the defensive talent to test Burton early. The Blazers will be competitive. They will show signs of a forming identity. With that said, this is not a great matchup for UAB; the Illini are obviously more talented and deeper, and their strengths tend to hit the areas where UAB still has questions to solve. But Illinois does not have real incentive to run up the score, and UAB will make a good accounting of itself. If the Blazers get out to a decent start and win the turnover battle, this could be closer than the spread suggests.

• Straight-up pick: Illinois
• Against the spread (Illinois -28.5): UAB +28.5
• Prediction: Illinois 37, UAB 17
• Season record: Week 1 — no prior record