The Really Big Preview: UAB at Louisiana

UAB heads to Lafayette Saturday night as a touchdown underdog against a Louisiana team that won't stop fighting. Both are 1-1. The Blazers lost at Illinois, then ran for 266 yards to beat ULM 26-20. The Ragin' Cajuns routed Lamar 38-7, then fell at USC but made it interesting late. The running game is the engine of everything UAB head coach Alex Mortensen wants to build. Saturday tells us whether this team is ready for what's coming in conference play.

GAME DETAILS

Matchup: UAB (1-1) at Louisiana (1-1)

Date: Saturday, Sept. 19

Kickoff: 7 p.m. CT

Location: Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium, Lafayette, La.

TV: ESPN+

Spread: Louisiana -7.5

Over/Under: 56.5

Last meeting: Louisiana 41, UAB 21 (2023)

THE STAKES

UAB is a road underdog for the second time in three weeks. The Blazers opened the season at Illinois and dominated the stat sheet but lost 42-23. They answered with a gritty home win over ULM defined by the running game and a shutout fourth quarter. Now the question: Was the ULM game the start of something, or was it a 1-1 team escaping with a win over a weaker opponent at home?

Louisiana has the head-to-head swagger. The Ragin' Cajuns won the last meeting 41-21 in 2023 as a 2.5-point underdog and have won three in a row over the Blazers. They routed Lamar in the opener, then lost 49-30 at USC. That score does not tell the full story — Louisiana trailed 28-10 at halftime and scored three touchdowns in the second half.

For UAB, this is a credibility game. A road win over a quality Sun Belt program is the kind of result that changes how people talk about you.

THE NUMBERS

266 — UAB's rushing yards against ULM on 52 carries. Mortensen pointed to the ground game as the biggest takeaway: "We rushed for 266 yards on 52 run attempts. Our offensive line, our receivers, tight ends — a lot of people were involved in the running game."

303 — Yards QB Lunch Winfield accounted for at USC — 212 passing (16-of-22, zero interceptions, 1 TD) and 91 rushing (14 carries, 2 TDs). That was 303 of Louisiana's 358 total yards. Mortensen called him a quarterback who "can stretch you thin."

4 — Interceptions forced by Louisiana's defense through two games. UAB quarterback Ryder Burton has thrown two interceptions in two games — one returned for a touchdown at Illinois, one in the final two minutes before halftime against ULM that led to a field goal. Burton's ball security is the most consequential stat in this game.

13-0 — UAB's fourth-quarter scoring advantage over ULM. The Blazers trailed 20-13 entering the final frame and scored a touchdown and two field goals to notch their first victory of 2026. Mortensen: "One of the things we want to emphasize is trying to win the fourth quarter."

ABOUT UAB (Visitor)

The Illinois loss was closer than 42-23 suggests. UAB put up 413 yards with 41:03 in time of possession, going 10-of-19 on third down and 3-for-4 on fourth down. Mortensen pointed to "a 14-point swing in two plays" as the difference. In the ULM win, Burton was 8-of-16 for 115 yards.

The defense held ULM to three second-half points after allowing 17 in the first half. Muaaz Byard led the team with 13 tackles. Jo Pierce added 11 and Ike Esonwune had 10. UAB is averaging 230.0 rushing yards per game (26th nationally) but ranks 105th in passing at 167.0 yards per game. The defense has allowed 175.5 rushing yards per game — a vulnerability against Louisiana's ground-oriented offense. The pass defense, however, has been a bright spot at 119.0 yards per game allowed (10th nationally).

Pass protection is UAB's most urgent concern. PFF grades the Blazers' pass blocking at 42.1 — the worst grade for either team in this matchup by a wide margin. ULM recorded three sacks and seven pressures against the Blazers in Week 2. When Burton has time, he has been accurate — he hit defenses over the top for a long gain to set up a touchdown at Illinois and threw the go-ahead 43-yard strike to EJ Reid against ULM. But against a Louisiana front that generated consistent pressure at USC, that time may be hard to find.

Mortensen said UAB must improve red zone execution. Jonah Delange went 4-of-4 on field goals against ULM (41, 45, 34, 42 yards), but Mortensen was direct: "We want to finish with the ball in the end zone more and rely on him less." Penalties remain a concern — 17 for 136 yards through two games.

ABOUT LOUISIANA (Home)

Michael Desormeaux has been the head coach since December 2021. He went 10-4 and reached the Sun Belt Championship Game in 2024 before dropping to 6-7 last season. The talent pool in south Louisiana keeps the roster stocked. In the USC loss, the Ragin' Cajuns showed fight late — a 32-yard Winfield rushing touchdown and a 14-yard touchdown pass to Russell Babineaux were the highlights of a second half that looked nothing like the first.

Winfield has established himself as one of the dynamic dual-threat quarterbacks in the Group of 6, and his 2026 numbers confirm it (individual stats below). Darrell Smith has emerged as a ground complement — 10 carries, 84 yards, 2 touchdowns (8.4 average) against Lamar. As a team, Louisiana is averaging 416.0 total yards per game (64th nationally), 194.5 rushing yards (44th) and 34.0 points per game (58th). The defense has allowed 28.0 points per game (110th) but has forced four turnovers through two games. PFF grades the coverage at 70.4, Louisiana's strongest defensive mark, but the run defense sits at just 52.2 — a vulnerability that matters against UAB's ground attack.

Desormeaux's staff features offensive coordinator Tim Leger and defensive coordinator Jim Salgado, a former Buffalo Bills assistant. Mortensen called Louisiana "a really balanced group" and said the defense has "good players at all three levels."

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

Lunch Winfield, QB, Louisiana (#7, R-Jr.) — PFF's 32nd-ranked quarterback nationally with an 85.5 offensive grade (82.1 rushing, 72.0 passing). Season totals: 32-of-44 (72.7%), 401 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT; 22 carries, 175 rushing yards, 3 TDs — 576 yards of total offense through two games. Both interceptions came in the Lamar opener; he was clean at USC. In 2025: 2,222 total yards, 20 touchdowns.

Roderick Robinson II, RB, UAB (#2, R-Jr., 6-1, 235) — PFF's 12th-ranked halfback nationally with an 83.8 offensive grade (83.0 rushing, 79.2 pass blocking). Rushed for 114 yards on 21 carries (5.4 avg) against ULM after 59 yards on 14 carries at Illinois. He is UAB's bell cow. Through two games: 35 carries, 173 yards, 4.9 average.

Russell Babineaux, WR, Louisiana (#10) — Winfield's top target at USC: 6 catches, 91 yards, 1 TD (27-yard long). Against Lamar, he had 1 catch for 4 yards while Caden Jensen led with 5 catches for 77 yards. With both Jensen and Shelton Sampson Jr. listed as questionable (details in injury report), Louisiana's receiving corps faces real uncertainty. Desormeaux: "With Trent going down, it just meant more opportunity for him and he did a really good job with the opportunities."

Ryder Burton, QB, UAB (#5, R-Jr., 6-2, 200) — PFF grades Burton 168th among quarterbacks nationally with a 66.3 offensive grade (59.8 passing, 68.7 rushing). The passing grade is largely a product of the protection problems outlined above. Burton's ability to extend plays with his legs has been an underrated asset. Mortensen: "Ryder is a good athlete, probably better than people realize. He's a good scrambler. ... His instinct to usually go forward and not go backwards helps him." Through two games: 26-of-47 (55.3%), 334 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs.

INJURY REPORT / AVAILABILITY

UAB:

• Nigel Tate (DT) — OUT (Achilles, rehabbing from 2025)
• Jaylen Elder (WR) — OUT
• Mortensen described "a weird rash of injuries at receiver" that has disrupted timing. EJ Reid "was out for a little bit" and is working his way back.
• Payton Kirkland (OT) — Returned to practice this week, per Steve Irvine of the Birmingham Banner. Unknown if or how much he will play. Injury at Illinois described as "recoverable" in Week 2. His return could be the single biggest variable in UAB's pass protection.

Louisiana:

• Shelton Sampson Jr. (WR) — OUT. Louisiana's leading receiver in 2025 (32 rec, 537 yards, 6 TD in 10 games). Absent from the Week 3 depth chart (knee).
• Trenton Chaney (WR) — OUT. Absent from the Week 3 depth chart (shoulder).
• Landon Strother (WR) — AVAILABLE. Recovered from a broken collarbone that sidelined him to start the season. Expected to step into an immediate role in the passing game.
• Caden Jensen (TE) — Second in receptions in 2025 (29 rec, 231 yards). Led Louisiana with 5 catches for 77 yards against Lamar in the opener.

Sources: Kevin Foote, The Baton Rouge Advocate (Strother availability, Sept. 16); Louisiana Week 3 depth chart (Sampson, Chaney absences).

WHEN UAB HAS THE BALL

The PFF numbers point UAB to the ground. The Blazers' 87.3 rushing grade is the highest offensive mark for either team. Louisiana's 52.2 run defense grade is the lowest defensive mark on their card. That is the widest gap on the board, and Robinson runs right into it. Braylon McReynolds and Ja'Vin Simpkins give UAB a three-back rotation. The run game dictates everything: it shortens the game, keeps the defense fresh and sets up Burton's play-action passing.

Jim Salgado's defense gave up 483 yards to USC but had its best 2025 performances against the run — holding opponents to as few as 47 yards (McNeese). Collin Jacob led all defenders with 13 tackles at USC. Jake St. Andre added 7 and Conor McPherson 6.

The critical concern is what happens when UAB has to throw. The pass-blocking problems run headlong into Louisiana's coverage. If Louisiana loads the box to stop the run, Burton must make plays through the air without turning it over. Reid has shown the receiving corps can produce, but the timing issues from receiver injuries are real. Mortensen acknowledged the passing game "has areas to improve."

WHEN LOUISIANA HAS THE BALL

Winfield is the offense. His USC performance — 303 of 358 team yards — said everything about how much Louisiana depends on him. Babineaux, Brock Chappell (3-47 at USC) and Teddy Gawlik (2-36) were his primary targets in the passing game.

This matchup tilts in Louisiana's favor on the ground. Louisiana's rushing average outpaces what UAB's defense has allowed, and PFF grades the Blazers' run defense at just 65.1. Against Lamar, Smith and Winfield combined for 168 rushing yards and three touchdowns. In 2025, Winfield rushed 152 times for 667 yards and 9 touchdowns. If Louisiana runs at UAB early and often, the numbers suggest they will move the ball.

UAB's pass defense is the counter — 10th nationally in yards allowed through the air. PFF grades UAB's coverage at just 55.5, though, a disconnect that suggests the Blazers may be benefiting from opponents' game plans rather than lockdown coverage. Mortensen described the challenge: "When you have a quarterback that's athletic, you've gotta be prepared to defend all the quarterback runs and have a plan for that, and still be effective enough defending the passing game. If he's got scramble ability too, that adds another dimension."

Louisiana went 3-for-3 in the red zone at USC, scoring touchdowns on every trip.

UAB WINS IF

UAB establishes the run and controls tempo. Mortensen's philosophy is built around "shrinking the game" — minimizing possessions and scoring on every drive. If Robinson and McReynolds are getting 4-plus yards per carry in the first half, UAB can dictate pace and keep Winfield on the sideline.

Burton protects the football. This is the game. If he can manage the passing game without turnovers — scrambling when necessary, taking completions underneath, not forcing throws into coverage — UAB stays in this. One bad decision against this secondary changes the complexion fast.

LOUISIANA WINS IF

Winfield controls both dimensions of the offense. If UAB sells out to stop the run, he showed at USC he can beat coverage. If they stay in coverage, he can tuck and run. Keeping UAB's defense off-balance is the game plan.

Louisiana wins the turnover battle. The secondary — led by Collin Jacob, Brent Gordon Jr. and Avery Demery — has been the most productive unit in this matchup on paper. A timely interception turns field position and could turn this game from competitive to decisive.

The defense makes UAB one-dimensional. If Louisiana slows Robinson and McReynolds enough to force UAB into obvious passing situations, every PFF grade on the board tilts in the Ragin' Cajuns' favor.

X FACTOR

Touchdowns, not field goals. Jonah Delange is 7-for-7 on field goals this season. But on the road against a quality opponent, field goals probably are not enough. Mortensen said it himself: "We want to finish with the ball in the end zone more and rely on him less." UAB has to convert red zone trips into touchdowns to win this game. That said, if it comes down to a late kick, the Blazers have a good one.

COACH SPEAK

Alex Mortensen, UAB: "I think they've got good players at all three levels. They've got a stout front, both inside and outside. Good size at the second level. Good linebackers that run well. Their DBs have both speed and some height and length. You can't really go, 'Hey, we're gonna go pick on them somewhere.'"

Michael Desormeaux, Louisiana: "They have two good running backs, run the ball really well. I think their quarterback was super tough — he's a gritty, tough dude. They control the clock. Against Illinois, they controlled time of possession the whole game. That game was a lot closer. They don't get the Hail Mary right before half, it's a different game."

THE PREDICTIONS

Source | Pick | Score / Detail

Doc Sports (Tony Sink) | Louisiana | Take Louisiana -8.5

Bleacher Report | Louisiana | Louisiana 28, UAB 24

Dimers | Louisiana | Louisiana 32, UAB 24

BetMGM model | Louisiana | 64.7% win probability; covers -7.5 at 60.5%

Capper's Picks AI | Louisiana | Louisiana 31, UAB 24

Consensus: All five available models pick Louisiana straight up. Three of five project a single-possession game. The consensus predicted score clusters around Louisiana 30, UAB 24.

DIEHARD BOTTOM LINE

Both teams hold 19-point losses to Big Ten teams on the road. On the surface, that looks like a wash. It's not exactly the same.

UAB was within a point heading into halftime at Illinois when the Illini hit a Hail Mary. Illinois scored on its opening drive of the second half and followed it with a pick six. That's a 21-point swing on three plays — two of them the kind you don't plan for. Louisiana's loss at USC was more one-sided from the start. The Ragin' Cajuns made noise late, but by then USC was substituting liberally. A P4 loss on the road is a P4 loss on the road. I'm not sure you can read much more into it than that. But the texture matters.

This game comes down to UAB's offensive line. If the Blazers establish the run and protect Burton, they will move the football. The PFF matchup says so — the rushing-grade-to-run-defense gap is the widest on the board. The defense is showing signs that it can get stops when it matters.

I think the Blazers will clean up the penalties and turnovers a bit, and will protect Burton enough for a big play that swings it UAB's way on a Jonah Delange field goal. Gutting this one out the road also signals that UAB might be a factor in the American Conference race as it prepares to host Navy the following week on a Friday night.

Straight-up pick: UAB 30-27

Against-the-spread pick (Louisiana -7.5): UAB +7.5

Season picks record: UAB 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS | Overall 51-10 SU, 33-25-1 ATS