The Really Big Preview: UAB at South Florida, Week 9

Lede

South Florida has the big-money roster — Power Four transfers, Florida recruiting talent, a coaching staff built to move the program up. The Bulls look the part. UAB coach Alex Mortensen said as much: "They do look the part, in terms of what you would expect or would like a defense to look like." But looking the part and playing the part have been two different things in Tampa this season. USF is 1-2 in American play, with a road loss at UTSA — the league leader — and a home loss to a Temple team that went on to lose to previously winless Charlotte two weeks later. The Blazers, 0-3 on the road but riding the league's No. 1 pass defense and a kicker hitting 89.5% of his field goals, arrive for a Halloween kickoff at Raymond James Stadium — a game where field position and red zone execution could matter more than talent on paper.

1. Game details

Matchup | UAB (4-3, 2-1 American) at South Florida (5-2, 1-2 American)

Date | Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026

Kickoff | 11 a.m. CT / 12 p.m. ET

Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.

TV | ESPN U

Series | USF leads 3-2 (tied 1-1 in Tampa)

Spread | USF -7.5 (opened -8.5)

Over/Under | 42.5-45.5 (Kalshi 42.5 / Dimers 45.5)

USF designation | Halloween Blackout game

2. The stakes

UAB is 2-1 in the American with five conference games remaining, starting here. Charlotte, Temple, UTSA and North Texas follow — with the last two being the teams currently first and second in the American standings. A road win in Tampa would give the Blazers positioning heading into that gauntlet. A loss means UAB has to run the table or close to it down the stretch to stay relevant in the league race, and this team hasn't proven it can win away from Protective Stadium.

South Florida is 5-2 but 1-2 in American play — the conference record that actually matters. The Bulls still have ECU, Memphis, FAU and Tulane on the schedule. Another conference loss here, at home, to a UAB team the oddsmakers expect them to handle, and the narrative around Hartline's first season shifts from "building something" to "underperforming the investment." The coaching staff, the portal spend, the facilities — all of it was supposed to produce better than 1-3 in the American.

Neither team has clinched bowl eligibility. UAB needs two more wins in its final five. USF needs one.

3. The numbers

126.0 — Passing yards per game allowed by UAB's defense, first in the FBS. South Florida's Michael Van Buren Jr. has thrown 179 consecutive passes without an interception.

17-19 — Jonah Delange's field goal record this season, including 8-of-9 from 40-49 yards and a long of 57. UAB has kicked nine field goals in 19 red zone trips. In a game between two strong defenses, the kicker matters.

100% — Opponents have scored on every one of UAB's 21 red zone defensive possessions this season, dead last nationally. USF's red zone offense scores on 95.5% of its trips — ninth in the FBS.

0 — Interceptions thrown by Van Buren this season in 179 attempts. UAB's defense has generated 16 takeaways. Something has to give.

4. About UAB

The Blazers are a team of two identities: strong at home (4-0 at Protective Stadium) and winless on the road (0-3, with each loss by seven or more points). The road scoring average — 16.7 points per game — reflects an offense that has struggled with consistency all season, particularly up front. UAB has allowed pressure on 45.8% of dropbacks and has been sacked on 9.7% of passing plays. Mortensen used the bye week to address it: "You gotta start off by controlling the line of scrimmage first and foremost."

The defense has carried the season. UAB leads the FBS in passing yards allowed (126.0 per game) and has generated 16 turnovers. Marlin Dean's 92.1 PFF pass rush grade and 24 total pressures (seven sacks, four forced fumbles) anchor the front. Jo'Tavion Pierce (80.4 PFF overall, 91.0 tackling grade) and Jeremiah Jordan (77.2 overall, 88.9 tackling) form one of the better safety tandems in the conference. Muaaz Byard averages a team-high 9.86 tackles per game.

UAB has been one of the better Under teams in college football — the Under has hit in six consecutive games.

5. About South Florida

The Bulls are 5-2 and have beaten every team they were supposed to beat — and lost to two they probably should have beaten. The win at Army (28-24) showed the upside: a physical team that can compete on the road in a hostile environment. The home loss to Temple (17-13) — a Temple team that went on to lose to previously winless Charlotte — showed how quickly USF's offense can go sideways.

USF's defense has been the story. The Bulls allow 15.1 points per game (10th nationally) and hold opponents to 4.0 yards per carry on designed runs, with a 26.6% stuff rate. Their red zone defense has forced seven field goal attempts while allowing only six touchdowns in 17 trips (35.3% TD rate). The defense grades out at 84.5 overall on PFF.

The offense has been the question mark. Against FBS opponents not named Delaware State, USF has not scored more than 29 points — and the game-by-game tells the story: 19 against FIU, 28 at Army, 14 at Bowling Green, 13 against Temple, 24 at UTSA, 29 against Kent State. USF averages 325.7 yards per game on offense. Van Buren has been efficient — 64.2% completion, 95.30 PFF passer rating, zero interceptions — but efficiency without production is just ball security. The defense has papered over the offense's limitations. When it couldn't — Temple and UTSA — the Bulls lost.

6. Key players to watch

Marlin Dean, UAB edge — PFF's 92.1 pass rush grade leads the team and generates 35% of UAB's total pressures. He has seven sacks and four forced fumbles. How USF's offensive line accounts for Dean will dictate Van Buren's comfort in the pocket.

Michael Van Buren Jr., USF quarterback — 1,266 passing yards, six touchdowns, zero interceptions. A transfer from Mississippi State and LSU. Faces the nation's No. 1 pass defense. His 2.74-second time to throw is faster than Burton's 3.13 — he processes quicker, and he'll need to against UAB's pressure.

Jonah Delange, UAB kicker — 17-of-19 on field goals (89.5%), 8-of-9 from 40-49 yards. Scored 65 points — 39.9% of UAB's total scoring. In a game where red zone touchdowns may be hard to come by, Delange is the Blazers' margin.

D.J. Crowther, USF running back — 81.9 PFF offensive grade, 518 rushing yards, seven touchdowns on 105 carries. Transferred from Dartmouth. Runs behind a gap/power/counter scheme (55.6% gap runs) that attacks downhill — directly into UAB's 13.8% stuff rate.

7. Injury report / availability

UAB:

• Nigel Tate (DT) — Out (Achilles)
• Blanche Gold (LB) — Out
• Jaylen Elder (WR) — Out
• Colby Archie (LB) — Out
• Adam Lepkowski (OL) — Questionable
• Payton Kirkland (OL) — Questionable
• Antonio Ferguson (TE) — Questionable
• J'Quan Mason (DE) — Questionable
• Kaleb Brown (WR) — Questionable, managing an injury through the bye

South Florida:

• Thomas Shrader (OL) — Questionable
• Victor Zidor (S) — Questionable
• Brooks Williams Jr. (DE) — Questionable
• Iverson Garcia-Ponce (NT) — Questionable
• Gabe Legrand (WR) — Questionable
• Dmari Roberts (WR) — Questionable

8. When UAB has the ball

UAB's offense runs through the ground game — 53.9% run rate, 9.5% above expectation. The Blazers run a zone-heavy scheme (52.0% zone) built on inside zone (37.6%) and pin-pull concepts (10.4%). Rod Robinson II (75.4 PFF grade, 436 rushing yards) and Bam McReynolds (76.9 PFF grade) handle the carries behind an offensive line that has been UAB's biggest limitation.

The matchup against USF's run defense is the game's tightest. UAB gains 4.6 yards per carry on designed runs. USF allows 4.0. UAB gets 1.4 yards before contact; USF allows 1.9. UAB's backs gain 3.3 yards after contact; USF allows 2.6. The after-contact gap is where USF's defense has the edge — their 16.7% missed tackle rate and 26.6% stuff rate suggest UAB's backs will have trouble finding second-level space.

In the passing game, Ryder Burton (73.0 PFF grade, 1,184 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions) has been most effective on intermediate and deep throws — his 10.8-yard average depth of target is 2.3 yards deeper than Van Buren's 8.5. CJ Smith (350 receiving yards, 18.42 yards per reception — first in the American) and Ty Mims (78.7 PFF offensive grade, 349 receiving yards) are the primary targets. Burton holds the ball a long time (3.13-second time to throw) behind an offensive line that allows pressure on 45.8% of dropbacks.

USF's defense blitzes at 46.6% and plays 77.1% zone coverage — similar to the looks UAB has faced all season (73.0% zone). USF generates pressure at 38.1%, with Michael Williams II (18 pressures, five sacks) and C.J. Hicks (15 pressures, 84.3 PFF pass rush grade) leading the edge. Unlike UAB's Dean-dependent pass rush, USF distributes pressure across seven players who have combined for 86 pressures.

USF's red zone defense has forced opponents into field goals on seven of 17 trips. UAB already kicks nine field goals on 19 red zone trips — 36.8% TD conversion rate. Delange (17-19, long of 57) makes those field goals valuable. But in a game where every possession matters, settling for three instead of seven is a deficit that accumulates.

9. When South Florida has the ball

Van Buren operates a balanced offense (52.6% pass, 47.4% run) that gets the ball out quickly (2.74-second time to throw) and avoids mistakes. His zero-interception streak across 179 attempts is the headline, and USF's 30.1% pressure rate allowed (compared to UAB's 45.8%) reflects an offensive line that gives him time.

USF's rushing attack runs a gap/power/counter-heavy scheme — 55.6% gap runs with power (16.9%), counter (21.7%) and outside zone (27.0%) as the primary concepts. Crowther (81.9 PFF grade, 518 yards, seven TDs) and Jason Collins Jr. (70.1 PFF grade, 150 snaps) run downhill behind an offensive line led by Ethan Green (69.4 PFF grade at tackle). The scheme attacks vertically, which tests a UAB defense that allows 2.1 yards before contact and has a 13.8% stuff rate — they're not stopping runs at the line of scrimmage consistently.

UAB's strength against the pass is the secondary. Delvon Gulley (73.0 PFF overall, 74.4 coverage grade) has allowed a 36.8% completion rate and an 8.8 passer rating against on 19 targets — with two interceptions and five pass breakups. The safety tandem of Pierce and Jordan combines for three interceptions and four pass breakups, with a combined 90.0 PFF tackling grade. UAB's coverage has held opponents to an 11.6% explosive pass rate.

The matchup to watch: UAB's pass rush (84.8 PFF team grade) against USF's offensive line (30.1% pressure rate allowed). Dean's 24 pressures and 92.1 PFF pass rush grade represent 35% of UAB's total pressure. If USF can account for Dean — with chips, slides or quick-game concepts — the remaining pass rush has not been as productive. USF's screen rate (13.7%, more than double UAB's 6.0%) and shorter ADOT (8.5 yards) suggest they'll attack with timing throws designed to neutralize the rush.

Mortensen on USF's ball security: "Turnover margin is right at the top, and it's been at the top for decades. ... If you don't give the other team the ball, your odds of winning the game just go way up." UAB's defense has produced 16 takeaways; USF has committed only four turnovers all season.

10. UAB wins if

The Blazers win the field position battle through special teams. Oliver Straw (45.9-yard gross average, zero touchbacks, Ray Guy Award candidate) and Owen Simpson (27 touchbacks on 35 kickoffs) have been UAB's hidden edge all season. Mortensen specifically credited special teams for keeping UAB in position to win the ECU game: "Field position matters and it probably made a huge difference in the game."

UAB limits Van Buren's time and comfort with early pressure. Dean's ability to disrupt timing is UAB's best weapon — even when it doesn't produce sacks, Mortensen noted it "can force people to have to game plan for him or around him."

The Blazers convert red zone trips into touchdowns rather than field goals. UAB's 36.8% red zone TD rate against USF's 35.3% red zone TD rate allowed means both tendencies point toward field goals. If Delange converts at his usual rate, field goals keep UAB in the game. But UAB likely needs at least one more touchdown than field goal to win outright.

UAB's 30:55 average time of possession (45th nationally) compared to USF's 28:10 (116th) suggests the Blazers can control the clock with their run-heavy approach — if the offensive line can sustain drives against USF's front.

11. South Florida wins if

The Bulls' run defense imposes its will. USF allows 4.0 yards per carry with a 26.6% stuff rate and -0.19 EPA per rush allowed. If they can hold UAB's ground game below its 4.6 YPC average and force Burton into obvious passing situations — where he holds the ball 3.13 seconds behind an offensive line allowing pressure at 45.8% — USF's defense can take over the game.

Van Buren continues to protect the football. USF's four-turnover season (zero interceptions) against UAB's 16-takeaway defense is the game's central tension. USF doesn't need to be explosive — the offense has won five games by being efficient and clean. The Bulls' 13.7% screen rate and 2.74-second time to throw are designed to mitigate pass rush pressure, and UAB blitzes at 44.1%.

USF's field position advantage holds. The Bulls pin opponents at their own 25.7-yard line on average (17th nationally); UAB pins opponents at the 29 (86th). USF's punt coverage allows 4.14 yards per return compared to UAB's 10.30 yards per return allowed. In a game where points are scarce, consistently forcing the opponent to drive an extra 3.3 yards is meaningful over 12-15 possessions.

12. X factor

Special teams. UAB's kicking operation is one of the best in the American, and in a game between two strong defenses, that matters. Jonah Delange is 17-of-19 on field goals (89.5%), including 8-of-9 from 40-49 yards, with a long of 57. He has scored 65 points — 39.9% of UAB's total scoring. Nico Gramatica is 10-of-13 (76.9%) with a long of 53. Owen Simpson's kickoffs produce touchbacks on 27 of 35 attempts (77%); USF's split operation between Gramatica and Lawson Thorn produces 16 touchbacks on 38 attempts (42%). Oliver Straw is averaging 45.9 yards per punt with 11 of his 20 punts traveling 50 yards or more — zero touchbacks — and UAB's coverage unit limits opponents to 10.30 yards per punt return. Straw booms it and the gunners get there. USF's opponents start at the 25.7-yard line on average (17th nationally); UAB's special teams unit has the tools to neutralize that edge. In a game where both offenses are likely settling for field goals, the kicker who doesn't miss from 40-49 is the one tilting the scoreboard.

13. Coach speak

Alex Mortensen, UAB: "They do look the part, in terms of what you would expect or would like a defense to look like. They've got good size, they've got height, arm length, all those things at a lot of spots. And they've got good athletes. It's at all three levels — the D-line, the backers and the secondary. And they do a good job coaching them, too. It's why they're tenth in the country in scoring defense right now, giving up fifteen points a game."

Brian Hartline, South Florida: Press conference not available for this game week.

14. The predictions

Source | Pick | Spread | O/U | Detail

Tony Tellez | USF | USF covers | — | UAB averages 16.7 ppg on the road, 9 turnovers, sack rate ~9.7%. USF defense too stingy at home.

Tony Sink | USF | USF -9.5 | 42 | Cites UAB's 10 turnovers and road struggles vs. USF's 15.1 ppg scoring defense (10th nationally).

Dimers (model) | USF | USF -6.5 (model) | 45.5 | Projected score: USF 26, UAB 17. UAB win probability 25.2%.

Kalshi | USF | USF -7.5 | 42.5 | USF 73% win probability. Market pricing a low-scoring game.

Covers consensus | USF (61%) | USF 61-39 | Under 56-44 | No expert or computer picks available. Public leans USF.

Bleacher Report | USF | — | — | Projected score: USF 24, UAB 13.

CappersPicks AI | USF | USF -7.5 | 42.5 | Projected score: USF 27, UAB 17. 4-star rated pick. Cites USF's home record (11-1 last 12) and UAB road struggles.

Pick Dawgz (Geevers) | USF | USF -6.5 | 42.5 | Cites UAB's 137th-ranked RZ defense vs. USF's 8th-ranked RZ offense. Notes Van Buren's 1,292 yards and zero INTs.

AP preview | — | Opened USF -8.5 | — | Key stat: UAB 100% opponent RZ scoring rate (137th) vs. USF 95.5% RZ offense (8th).

Line movement: Opened USF -8.5. The line varies by source — Kalshi has USF -7.5, Sink's source lists -9.5. Dimers' model projects USF -6.5, the lowest number in the market. The spread disagreement reflects uncertainty about how UAB's top-ranked pass defense travels against a USF offense that doesn't turn the ball over.

Totals: Kalshi's total sits at 42.5 — three points lower than Dimers' 45.5. The Under has hit in six consecutive UAB games and five of USF's last seven home games. The market expects a defensive grind. Public consensus leans Under (56-44 on Covers).

ATS records: USF is 3-4 against the spread this season. UAB is 3-3-1 ATS and has covered in only four of its last 12 games (-27% ROI per Covers). UAB's penalty average (57.6 yards per game, 75th) compared to USF's discipline (38.9, 10th) is an additional factor — the Blazers hurt themselves more with self-inflicted yardage.

15. Diehard bottom line

South Florida (-7.5) is rightfully favored in this game. The Bulls were expected to be one of the top teams not just in the American but in the Group of 6. UAB was projected at three to four wins by most prognosticators and has already met that, with a chance to go far beyond it in Mortensen's first full season.

It will be interesting to see how UAB's offense performs after an extended open date of 17 days following the East Carolina win. The Blazers spent that time getting healthy and getting extra practice reps in the areas where they need improvement. A big key will be UAB's offensive line. The staff is high on Cooper Young and has praised his progress since taking over for Lepkowski in the second half of the loss at Memphis. With that said, it is still hard to overstate the importance of Lepkowski's experience, especially against a talented defense like USF.

I expect this to be another down-to-the-wire fistfight. The Bulls would be wise not to let this one be within Delange's reach late. But I expect they'll have enough to take this one at home.

South Florida 26, UAB 17

Season record: 5-2 (SU) / 4-2 (ATS)