UAB needs one win for a bowl game. Getting it on the road is the hard part

UAB is 5-4 and one win from bowl eligibility for the first time since the 2022 Bahamas Bowl. Three games remain — at Temple, home against UTSA and at North Texas. Two of the three are on the road.

The road is the problem.

The Blazers are 5-0 at Protective Stadium this season. They are 0-4 everywhere else. Over the last four seasons, UAB is 2-25 in 27 true road games. The defense that has carried this team — 23.78 points allowed per game, nine consecutive opponents held under 200 passing yards — has not been enough to overcome what happens to the offense away from Birmingham.

"I think it would be a really good accomplishment," UAB Coach Alex Mortensen said after Saturday's win over Charlotte. "It's been some time since UAB's been to a bowl. I think it would be a great thing to get done. And we certainly want to do that. And then we're also right now, again, focused on what does it take to do that. We know that we've got to get better. We've got to play cleaner football and make progress to be able to do that and go win enough games to get us to that point. But I think it would be a great accomplishment for the program and I think something we could build on. Right now it's one week at a time."

The first opportunity is Saturday at Temple. Kickoff is noon CT at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on ESPN+.

The opponent

Temple is 2-7 overall and 1-4 in the American Conference. The Owls have been eliminated from bowl contention. On paper, this should be the easiest path to win No. 6.

But the record doesn't tell the entire story. Five of Temple's seven losses have come by eight points or fewer — 49-48 in overtime at Toledo, 42-35 at Navy, 38-31 to Charlotte, 21-17 to Army and 17-9 at East Carolina. Only Penn State (27-9) and UConn (34-20) were non-competitive.

A common opponent is the most direct comparison. Temple won 17-13 at South Florida. UAB lost there 30-10.

Temple's offense averages 352.1 yards and 24.9 points per game. Quarterback Ajani Sheppard is a dual threat — 1,245 passing yards with eight touchdowns through the air and 400 rushing yards with five more on the ground. Running back Keveun Mason has averaged 5.4 yards per carry. Four Temple receivers average more than 15 yards per catch. This is not a group that struggles to move the ball. The Owls scored 48 at Toledo, 38 against Rhode Island, 35 at Navy and 31 against Charlotte.

The defense is where Temple breaks down. The Owls allow 408.8 yards and 28.3 points per game. The pass rush has produced 10 sacks in nine games.

Where UAB has the edge

The matchup that should define Saturday is UAB's pass rush against Temple's pass protection. UAB's pass rush grades 87.8 for the season according to Pro Football Focus. Temple's grades 63.6. UAB generates pressure on 38.2 percent of dropbacks. Temple allows pressure at the same rate.

Marlin Dean grades 84.7 — the highest individual Pro Football Focus grade on either roster. Jo'Tavion Pierce grades 83.4. Delvon Gulley grades 77.4. Temple's protection has not shown the ability to handle that kind of pressure against anyone this season.

UAB's coverage unit grades 81.7. Temple's grades 59.7. That is the widest grade gap in the matchup — a 22-point difference.

Where Temple can hurt UAB

Temple's rushing offense grades 80.9 — nearly identical to UAB's 81.8. Temple averages 175.9 rushing yards per game, led by Sheppard and Mason. UAB's run defense has been solid, but a dual-threat quarterback who averages 4.9 yards per carry presents a different challenge than what Charlotte offered.

The offensive line remains the ceiling on everything UAB does. Ryder Burton has gained 186 rushing yards and lost 199 to sacks this season — a net of minus-13. The line has allowed 27 sacks in nine games. Saturday against Charlotte, the 49ers generated pressure rushing three defenders with a linebacker spy. Temple's pass rush has been poor, but when protection breaks down that easily, it does not take much.

What's ahead

UAB is 3-2 in the American Conference with three league games remaining. After Temple, the Blazers host UTSA — which was upset at Florida Atlantic on Thursday — and then close the season at North Texas, which is undefeated in conference play and alone in first place.

Temple is the softest remaining opponent. UTSA at home will be a battle but not unwinnable. Beating North Texas on the road, for a team that is 2-25 in its last 27 true road games, is the scenario UAB does not want to need.

The players were asked what bowl eligibility would mean. Delvon Gulley answered by looking past it.

"It'll feel great," Gulley said. "But right now we're in a race to the American Conference, and we trying to get a conference win. A bowl game, we know we can get that. That wasn't what we've been thinking about this whole spring, fall, summer. That ain't what we was thinking about. We still in the race to win that American Conference. That's what we coming for. A bowl would be nice, though."