The Really Big Preview: Charlotte at UAB

It's Children's Harbor Day at Protective Stadium. The Blazers wear gray. The fans wear gray. Ninety-nine children's names go on the backs of UAB's jerseys — one of college football's most meaningful traditions, now in its 10th year. UAB is 8-1 in these games. Charlotte will try to become only the second team to spoil it — and put a damper on the Blazers' bowl hopes in the process.

UAB is 4-4 and needs two of its final four to reach six. Charlotte is 1-7 but has scored 30-plus in back-to-back games and played Tulane to overtime last week. And the 49ers' quarterback, Conner Harrell, grew up 30 minutes south in Alabaster. His brother Kyle played four seasons at UAB. Saturday, Conner comes home on the other sideline.

1. Game details

Matchup | Charlotte (1-7, 1-3 American) at UAB (4-4, 2-2 American)

Date | Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026

Kickoff | 2:30 p.m. CT / 3:30 p.m. ET

Location | Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Ala.

TV | ESPN+ — Jack Benjamin (play-by-play), Marcus "Doc" Holliday (analyst), Maria Trivelpiece (sideline)

Series | Tied 2-2 (Charlotte 0-2 in Birmingham; UAB 2-0 at home)

Special designation | 10th annual Children's Harbor game

Line: UAB -10.5 | O/U: 47-50.5 (varies by book — BetMGM 50.5, most others 47-47.5)

Moneyline: UAB -375 / Charlotte +310

2. The stakes

UAB entered the week needing two wins in its remaining four games to reach bowl eligibility. Muaaz Byard framed it directly: "We control our own destiny. We have four games to make it five and possibly six."

The math is unforgiving. A loss drops the Blazers to 4-5 with three games left — at Temple, home against UTSA (the current American co-leader) and at North Texas (the other co-leader). Two of those three are on the road, where UAB is 0-4 this season — losses at Illinois, at Louisiana, at Memphis and at South Florida. The Blazers haven't won away from Birmingham all year. A first home loss of the season, to a team that's already been eliminated from bowl contention, would make that closing stretch feel even steeper.

Charlotte is 1-7 and has nothing left to play for in the standings. But the 49ers have played their best football in the last two games — a 38-31 win over Temple on Oct. 17 and a 38-31 overtime loss to Tulane on Oct. 30 in which they scored 24 second-quarter points and took the Green Wave to the final possession. Their improvement makes this a dangerous game for the Blazers. Tim Albin's team scored 30-plus points in both of those games after averaging 16.0 in its previous six.

The series is tied 2-2. Charlotte has won both games played in Charlotte (25-24 in 2017, 29-27 in 2024) but has never won in Birmingham — UAB took both meetings at home (28-7 in 2018, 34-20 in 2022). The last meeting was Charlotte's 29-27 win on Nov. 30, 2024.

3. The numbers

84.5 — UAB's Pro Football Focus pass-rush grade, among the best in the country. Charlotte's offensive line allows pressure on 31.3% of dropbacks, roughly average. UAB generates pressure at 38.3% — seven points higher than what Charlotte has faced. Marlin Dean and Tylin Jackson lead a front that has been the engine of this defense all season, and Charlotte coach Tim Albin knows it. "The Marlin Dean kid is sacks," Albin said. "I mean, he's a first day draft guy."

116.0 — Passing yards per game allowed by UAB's defense, best in the FBS. Charlotte averages 204.8 passing yards per game — but only when Conner Harrell is starting. Harrell has thrown for 200-plus in three consecutive starts, averaging 246 passing yards per start in conference play. Charlotte is 0-10 when it fails to reach 200 passing yards in a game since 2024.

1.2 — Yards before contact per carry for Charlotte's rushing offense on the season. But that number masks a trend. Charlotte's offensive line has improved significantly in the last two games — left tackle J'ven Williams graded 81.2 in run blocking at Tulane, a significant jump from his early-season numbers. Henry Rutledge's back-to-back 100-yard games aren't all him — the blocking has gotten better. Whether that improvement holds against a UAB run defense that allows a 43.2% rushing success rate is the key question on the ground.

16 — Charlotte's turnovers committed in eight games, a minus-1.25 per-game margin that ranks last in the American. UAB was 0-7 last season when it did not force and recover a fumble. The Blazers lost two fumble-return touchdowns at South Florida in Week 9 — ball security has been a theme on both sidelines this week.

4. About Charlotte

Charlotte is 1-7, but the two-game snapshot captures more about what this team is right now than the season record. The 49ers beat Temple 38-31 and took Tulane to overtime before losing 38-31. Before that, the losses piled up against the top of the league — Memphis, North Texas — and in games where Charlotte's defense couldn't hold up its end. Albin, in his second season after going 33-19 in four years at Ohio, has seen his team fight through it. "We have gone through a lot," he said. "I couldn't be prouder."

Offensive coordinator Todd Fitch runs one of the shortest, fastest passing attacks in the country — heavy screens, a 7.3-yard average depth of target and a 2.66-second average time to throw. The design is built to protect the quarterback from pressure and keep Charlotte out of third-and-long. Albin laid out the approach against UAB directly: "There's no way we're going to be able to get into a scoring match against them. I know that. I think just our best is going to be third and manageable. Pick and choose your spots."

On the ground, Charlotte runs 75.9% zone — heavy outside zone at 42.0%, among the highest nationally. The run-blocking improvement over the last two games has been the biggest development in Charlotte's season. Left tackle J'ven Williams graded 81.2 in PFF run blocking at Tulane — his best mark of the season. Reginhard Pierre-Nau graded 72.6 in run blocking against the Green Wave. Rutledge (70.4 PFF, 74 carries, 452 yards) has rushed for 100-plus in back-to-back games — the first Charlotte back to do that since Benny LeMay — and the line is a big reason why.

Charlotte's defense is the problem. Defensive coordinator Nate Faanes' unit allows 40.3 points per game — opponents have scored on 34% of drives, tied for worst in the FBS. The interior defensive line (Devin Ancrum, Jamarrion Solomon, Jamil Davis) grades above average and gives Charlotte its best chance to disrupt. But the edge rush has produced just 11 sacks in eight games, and the secondary has been one of the most exploitable in the American.

Charlotte is 4-4 against the spread this season. On the road, the 49ers have covered in six of their last seven games. Sharp money has been on Charlotte in this game — 65% of moneyline handle despite only 17% of tickets.

5. About UAB

The Blazers are a team of two identities: dominant at home (4-0 at Protective Stadium) and winless on the road (0-4). The defense has carried the season — the nation's best pass defense by yards allowed, a top-five pass rush in the American and coverage grades that rank among the best in the conference.

The offense has been a different story. UAB averages 21.6 points per game, and Alex Mortensen said it is playing far more conservatively than he'd like. "Right now, I would say we're playing far more conservative than I would like to ever play, and would like to be far more aggressive than we are, particularly on earlier downs," he said. The offensive line is the reason. UAB allows pressure on 45.2% of dropbacks — among the worst in the country — and Ryder Burton has absorbed the damage. He is 104-of-194 (53.6%) for 1,333 yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions. His net rushing yards: minus-10 (178 gained, 188 lost to sacks).

The South Florida loss in Week 9 was the low point. UAB managed 177 total yards on 61 plays — 2.9 yards per play — with 17 rushing yards on 33 carries. Burton took six sacks and lost two fumbles, both returned for touchdowns. SportsJaw noted that if you strip out those two defensive scores, USF's offense managed just one touchdown against UAB's defense. The defense did its job. The offense did not.

But context matters. South Florida, Memphis and East Carolina — the three American defenses that gave UAB's offense the most trouble — are a tier above Charlotte. USF grades at 84.5 on PFF defense. Memphis held the Blazers scoreless in the second half. ECU generates pressure at nearly 40%. Charlotte's pass rush has produced 11 sacks in eight games. On paper, this is the most favorable matchup UAB's offense has seen since Samford — and Burton posted his best PFF passing grade of the season in that game.

Burton knows what the USF tape showed. He told Diehard he watched it six or seven times. "There's definitely some things that we can do better as an offense, but it starts with me," he said. Mortensen pushed back: "Look, I don't care, like, I'm just telling you this guy's a pretty freaking good player, okay?"

6. Key players to watch

Marlin Dean, UAB edge rusher — The centerpiece of the defense and the player Charlotte's entire game plan is built around. Albin called him "a first day draft guy" and told his team they have to know where Dean is on every snap — but also flagged Tylin Jackson (#17), who lines up to the field side: "You're going to have to know where he's at as well." Dean and Jackson test whether Charlotte's quick-game approach can neutralize UAB's front.

Jo'Tavion Pierce, UAB safety — 81.2 PFF overall defensive grade, 90.9 tackling grade (ninth among all safeties nationally), 73 tackles, three sacks and a forced fumble. Pierce has graded above 80.0 in three of his last four games, including 81.2 at Memphis and 85.5 vs. ECU. His hit against South Florida knocked out starting quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. early in the second quarter — a play reviewed for targeting and ruled legal. Byard on Pierce: "Ain't nobody hit harder than in the conference for sure."

Henry Rutledge, Charlotte running back — The most dangerous player Charlotte puts on the field. Against Tulane: 254 all-purpose yards (121 rushing, 79 receiving, 54 kick returns) — tied for second in Charlotte's single-game record book. He ranks third among active FBS players in career kick return yards and averages 3.5 yards after contact per carry. The run blocking in front of him has improved — Williams graded 81.2 in run blocking against Tulane — and Rutledge has responded with back-to-back 100-yard games, the first Charlotte back to do that since Benny LeMay. UAB's run defense has to win at the line. If Rutledge reaches the second level, he makes people miss.

Conner Harrell, Charlotte quarterback — The homecoming story. Harrell grew up in Alabaster, about 30 minutes south of Protective Stadium on I-65, where he led Thompson High School to back-to-back state championships and went 24-1 as the starting quarterback. He completed 72% of his passes for 6,100 yards and 81 touchdowns with only six interceptions over his final two prep seasons, was named Alabama's Gatorade Player of the Year and was valedictorian of his class. He was a consensus top-30 dual-threat quarterback nationally out of high school — ranked by 247Sports, Rivals, ESPN and On3.

Harrell signed with North Carolina, where he appeared in 11 games across two seasons. His Duke's Mayo Bowl start against West Virginia as a redshirt freshman — 18-of-27, 199 yards and a touchdown — was his biggest stage at UNC. He was UNC's starting quarterback against Charlotte in 2024. He transferred to Charlotte in January 2025, set Jerry Richardson Stadium records for passing yards (382) and total yards (429) in a win over Monmouth and went 26-of-30 (86.7%) — a Charlotte single-game program record for completion percentage. Then a season-ending injury in Week 4 shut him down.

He's back now, in just his fourth start of 2026, and the offense has responded. Harrell has thrown for 200-plus in three consecutive starts and averages 246 passing yards per start in American Conference games. He's still working back from a major injury and the inconsistency shows game to game, but the upside shows up in bunches. The family connection runs deeper than geography: his brother Kyle played four seasons as an outside linebacker at UAB (2017-2021), recording 3.5 sacks and an interception. Mortensen recruited Conner when Mortensen was on staff at Alabama. "Yeah, I recruited Conner a little bit out of high school, worked him out," Mortensen said. "Really liked him as a prospect and he had a really good camp. I'm happy to see him getting an opportunity and playing well."

Gavin Willis, Charlotte linebacker — The one Charlotte defender who grades above average across multiple categories. Willis leads the team with 66 tackles in eight games, ranks seventh in the American in tackles per game and is closing in on Charlotte's single-season top-10 list. His 78.7 PFF run defense grade is the highest among Charlotte's linebackers.

7. Injury report / availability

Charlotte: The depth chart lists multiple OR designations. Harrell OR Cole Gonzales at quarterback — Harrell has started the last three games and is expected to start. Pierre-Nau OR Bullerdick at right guard — Isaiah Bullerdick missed all of 2025 with an injury and the two have been splitting snaps since his return. On the defensive line, Solomon missed time with a mid-season injury and has started the last two games since returning. Curtis Simpson OR Jaylon Johnson at one edge spot. No other injuries were disclosed in Albin's press conference.

UAB: No specific injuries reported in Mortensen's press conference. Burton remains the starting quarterback. Center Adam Lepkowski, who missed the ECU game and was listed as questionable entering USF, was not mentioned as limited this week.

Note: Check official availability reports closer to kickoff for both teams.

8. When Charlotte has the ball

Charlotte's passing game is designed to avoid pressure. Fitch's quick-game approach — 25.3% of passes behind the line of scrimmage, a 21.5% screen rate, a 2.66-second average time to throw — keeps Harrell clean when the offensive line can't. Only 12.0% of Charlotte's passes go deep. The scheme has a built-in ceiling, but also a built-in floor: if the short throws connect, the pass rush becomes irrelevant.

UAB's defense is built to test that floor. Dean leads the edge. Jackson complements him. Todd Grantham also blitzes from the secondary — something Albin flagged: "They do a fair amount of pressure with the secondary." Charlotte allows pressure on 31.3% of dropbacks, roughly average, but UAB generates it at 38.3%. Dean and Jackson don't need sacks to disrupt this offense — batted passes, tips at the line and disrupted screen timing can take away Charlotte's primary mechanism without ever touching Harrell. But if the screens hit early, UAB's coverage has to rally to the ball in space.

On the ground, Charlotte runs heavy outside zone (42.0% of designed runs). The run blocking has improved — Williams' 81.2 PFF run-blocking grade at Tulane was a season best. Khamani Alexander adds a pass-blocking element out of the backfield. Center Nic Cruji has drawn four penalties in eight games, and his run-blocking grade hasn't moved much game to game. If UAB's interior (79.4 PFF run defense grade) can win at the point of attack, Rutledge won't reach the second level where he does his damage.

Charlotte's receiving targets: Jaden Barnes (48 catches, 462 yards, 67.0 PFF) is the possession receiver. Derrick Eley (23 catches, 18.2 yards per reception — second in the American) is the big-play threat — his 75-yard touchdown at North Texas was tied for sixth in Charlotte program history. Jaylen Hampton (400 snaps) is the third option. Against the nation's best pass defense by yards allowed, Charlotte needs Eley to hit at least one chunk play to keep the defense honest — otherwise, UAB can sit on the short throws and rally to the ball.

Charlotte's overall PFF offensive grade is 63.9. UAB's PFF defensive grade is 86.2. That gap — 22.3 points — is the widest on the field.

9. When UAB has the ball

This is where the game could open up for the Blazers.

Charlotte's secondary is where opponents attack. Every cornerback and safety with significant snaps allows a passer rating above 100 against. Chase Usher — a true freshman who has started every game since Week 2 — has given up three touchdowns and a 148.8 passer rating on 27 targets. Collin Gill has allowed three touchdowns and a 127.7 passer rating on 29 targets. CJ Clinkscales Jr. has given up 244 yards and a 122.4 passer rating on 23 targets. This is not a secondary that's going to lock anyone down.

The question is whether UAB's offense can take advantage of it.

Ryder Burton's season has been defined by the gap between his best and worst games. His PFF passing grades have climbed as high as 80.8 (vs. Samford) and 75.6 (vs. ECU). Through seven games (before the USF disaster), his season passing grade was 71.0. He has been a capable quarterback when the offensive line gives him time. The problem is the offensive line rarely gives him time. UAB allows pressure on 45.2% of dropbacks — among the worst 15 teams in the country.

Charlotte's pass rush should offer Burton some relief. DJ Burgess leads the edge with 13 pressures, but Charlotte's edge rush is not going to overwhelm UAB's tackles the way South Florida, Memphis and ECU did. The interior is Charlotte's best defensive unit — Ancrum (76.1 PFF), Solomon (70.7) and Davis (70.3) give the 49ers a credible push up the middle. Solomon missed time with a mid-season injury but has returned for the last two games. UAB's interior offensive line has been inconsistent all season — Cooper Young moved from right guard to center in Week 6, and the unit has been searching for cohesion since.

Mortensen said the offense can't "live in the middle" between protection schemes. "You can't live in the middle there, where we are running a slow-developing route and we're not giving our line help, or we're holding onto the ball too long," he said. Against Charlotte's inability to generate edge pressure, the staff may have more freedom to get receivers into routes without keeping extra blockers in — something Mortensen has said he wants to do.

Rod Robinson II (80.3 PFF rushing grade through early-season data, 108 carries, 450 yards, three touchdowns) leads the ground game. Charlotte allows 5.2 yards per designed carry, a 50.0% rushing success rate and 21 rushing touchdowns in eight games. If the offensive line can create any movement at the point of attack — and Charlotte's 19.6% stuff rate suggests it doesn't stop many runs at the line of scrimmage — Robinson should have room to operate.

Burton on what changes after the USF game: "I've got to be better at learning when to say when and accepting defeat and moving on to play the next play." Mortensen framed it differently: the quarterback is going through his first full season as a college starter, and poise is "a learned trait."

Willis is the one Charlotte defender who can disrupt runs at the second level and close on Burton if he holds the ball.

10. Charlotte wins if

Charlotte passes for 200 or more yards. The 49ers are 0-10 since 2024 when they fail to reach 200 passing yards. Harrell has thrown for 200-plus in three straight starts. Against UAB's pass defense — best in the FBS at 116.0 yards per game — getting to that number would require the screen game and quick throws to generate significant yardage after the catch.

The screen game neutralizes the rush. Charlotte's heavy screen-and-short passing design is the plan against any defense that generates pressure. If UAB's coverage rallies to the ball on those short throws, Charlotte's primary mechanism stalls. But if the screens hit and Charlotte gets yards after catch, it negates the pass rush entirely.

Charlotte forces UAB turnovers. Charlotte's defense has only six takeaways in eight games, so the offense needs help. UAB lost two fumble-return touchdowns at USF. Burton's ball security under pressure has been an issue — he has five interceptions and multiple fumbles on the season. Charlotte is 1-16 since 2024 when allowing 100 or more rushing yards. If they can't stop the run, forcing turnovers may be the only way to stay in the game.

The offensive line keeps improving. Albin said it directly: "When you can't run it, it is hard to play quarterback, it's more difficult to call the game. One thing I will sit here and pound the table on is the guys up front and the ability to establish a running game." Charlotte's run blocking has trended up — Williams' 81.2 run-blocking grade at Tulane was a season best — and Rutledge has responded with back-to-back 100-yard games. If the line can sustain that improvement against UAB's 79.4 PFF run defense grade, it keeps Fitch's game plan alive and keeps Charlotte out of the passing-only situations where UAB's defense dominates.

11. UAB wins if

The pass rush gets home early. Charlotte's quick-game scheme is designed to negate pressure. But if Dean and Jackson can disrupt the timing of screens and quick throws — batted passes, tips at the line, penetration into the backfield before the screen develops — it takes away Charlotte's best option and forces Harrell into the kind of extended dropbacks Charlotte's offense avoids by design. Albin acknowledged the challenge: "You can't just put all your focus on Marlin, No. 4. They got other guys that are capable."

Robinson and the run game establish early. Charlotte allows 5.2 yards per designed carry and a 50.0% rushing success rate — the run game is the offense's strength. A productive first quarter on the ground would let Mortensen's offense play the aggressive style he says he wants — getting receivers into routes, stretching zone coverages and attacking a Charlotte secondary that has been one of the most exploitable in the American.

UAB protects the football. The Blazers were 0-7 last season when they didn't force and recover a fumble. The USF loss was defined by two fumble-return touchdowns — 14 points off turnovers that had nothing to do with the Bulls' offense. Charlotte is 0-13 since 2024 when opponents commit fewer than 60 penalty yards. UAB's discipline matters. Burton's ball security under pressure is the variable.

The defense limits Charlotte's explosive plays. Charlotte has a 16.0% explosive play rate and Eley averages 18.2 yards per reception. If UAB prevents the chunk plays — particularly on the perimeter, where Eley's deep speed creates one-play scoring opportunities — Charlotte's offense has to sustain drives against a defense allowing a 44.7% success rate. Charlotte scored on consecutive one-play drives earlier this season. UAB can't afford that.

12. X factor

Children's Harbor — the 10th year.

UAB is 8-1 in Children's Harbor games. Whether the tradition translates into a measurable edge is unknowable. But the Blazers treat this game differently than a standard Saturday — the head coach, the quarterback, the linebacker and the safety all spoke about what it means to them unprompted and at length. That doesn't happen with a marketing exercise. Byard called it "something bigger than me." Pierce connected it to his own experience working with children with disabilities at Montgomery Catholic. Burton talked about what it means to carry someone else's name on his jersey.

Full Children's Harbor coverage: UAB celebrates 10th anniversary

13. Coach speak

Alex Mortensen, UAB: "Right now, I would say we're playing far more conservative than I would like to ever play, and would like to be far more aggressive than we are, particularly on earlier downs."

Tim Albin, Charlotte: "There's no way we're going to be able to get into a scoring match against them. I know that. I think just our best is going to be third and manageable. Pick and choose your spots."

Albin on Marlin Dean: "The Marlin Dean kid is sacks. I mean, he's a first day draft guy. He is really talented. You got to know where he's at. They do a good job moving him around."

Albin on the team's fight: "We have gone through a lot. I couldn't be prouder."

Ryder Burton: "There's definitely some things that we can do better as an offense, but it starts with me."

14. The predictions

Source | SU Pick | Spread Pick | O/U Pick | Projected Score

BetMGM model | UAB (70.0%) | UAB -10.5 (65.0%) | — | —

Doc's Sports (Schonwald) | — | Charlotte +10.5 | — | —

Dimers | UAB (77.3%) | — | — | UAB 28, Charlotte 19

SportsJaw | UAB | Pass | Pass | UAB 27, Charlotte 20

Line movement and market signals: The spread varies by book — BetMGM has UAB -10.5, SportsJaw listed -8.5 and Doc's Sports listed -10.5. The total ranges from 47 (Doc's Sports) to 50.5 (BetMGM), with most books clustering around 47.5. Sharp money has been on Charlotte — 65% of moneyline handle despite only 17% of tickets. UAB had 83% of moneyline tickets but only 35% of the money. When the money and the tickets disagree that sharply, the money is usually the sharper side.

Consensus: Every available model picks UAB to win straight up, with win probabilities ranging from 70.0% to 77.3%. But the projected margins — seven points (SportsJaw), nine points (Dimers) — fall short of covering -10.5. Schonwald takes Charlotte with the points. The market is split: models favor UAB comfortably, but the spread asks for more than the projections support.

Situational factors: UAB is 7-1 to the Under this season — the game total has gone Under in 10 of the Blazers' last 12 games. Charlotte's road ATS trend (covered in six of last seven away games) is the strongest counter to the spread. UAB's home moneyline has hit in four of its last six home games.

Additional predictions will be added as they become available.

15. Diehard bottom line

Season record on UAB games: 6-2 SU, 5-2 ATS

Charlotte's recent improvement is real. The 49ers have scored 30-plus in back-to-back games, the offensive line has gotten measurably better, and Harrell is playing with confidence. But context matters. Charlotte started 0-6. The 49ers lost at home to an FCS Citadel team that is 2-7. They were drubbed by Ole Miss. They lost 34-7 to a Louisiana team that also beat UAB 21-14. In back-to-back weeks, Memphis and North Texas outscored them a combined 109-18.

UAB's offense has an opportunity to make strides here. The defense should take care of business against the 49ers and improve to 5-0 at Protective this season.

Pick: UAB 30, Charlotte 17 — UAB covers (-10.5)