The Really Big Preview: Navy at UAB

Navy visits Protective Stadium on Friday night as a seven-point favorite, the preseason pick to win the American Conference and one of the best rushing teams in the country. UAB is 1-2 and coming off its worst offensive performance of the season — 218 total yards at Louisiana. The Blazers have never beaten Navy. This is UAB's American Conference home opener on ESPN, a Salute to Service night and the biggest test Alex Mortensen has faced in his first full season as head coach.

GAME DETAILS

Date: Friday, Sept. 25

Kickoff: 6 p.m. CT

Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Ala.

TV: ESPN (Anish Shroff, Andre Ware, Morgan Uber)

Spread: Navy -7.0

Over/Under: 51.5

Series: Navy leads 3-0 (31-6 in 2023, 41-18 in 2024, 38-24 in 2025)

THE STAKES

Navy enters 0-1 in the American after losing 38-30 at FAU two weeks ago. Brian Newberry's program has won 27 of 40 games since he took over, including back-to-back 10-win seasons. The Midshipmen were the preseason consensus pick to win the American. Starting 0-2 in conference would undercut those expectations in a conference that does not offer much margin for error.

UAB has never beaten Navy. The closest margin in three meetings is 14 points (38-24 last season). The Blazers and Midshipmen were tied 24-24 at halftime in Annapolis last year before a fumble and a rain delay derailed the second half. Mortensen pointed to that game this week: "Our quarterback started off, like, seven for seven on completions and threw for touchdowns on our first three drives. We had twenty-four points at the half."

This is UAB's first game on ESPN's flagship network at Protective Stadium. The Blazers' last ESPN appearance was Sept. 1, 2021 — a 31-0 win over Jacksonville State in Montgomery. A Salute to Service theme, a military opponent, a national broadcast and a conference opener — this is the stage Mortensen has been building toward.

THE NUMBERS

376.0 — Navy's rushing yards per game, second nationally. QB Braxton Woodson leads with 296 yards and four touchdowns on 35 carries (8.5 average). Three Navy players have topped 100 rushing yards this season.

40.5 — Navy's rushing yards allowed per game, also second nationally and first in the American. Opponents have rushed 64 times for 81 yards — 1.3 per carry. Navy has not allowed a rushing touchdown this season.

7-for-7 — Jonah Delange on field goals, first in the conference. UAB has five total touchdowns in three games — three rushing, two passing.

53.1 → 65.5 → 66.3 — UAB's team defense PFF grade through three weeks. The defense has improved every game under first-year coordinator Todd Grantham. The pass defense ranks sixth nationally at 116.0 yards allowed per game, first in the American.

ABOUT NAVY (Visitor)

Newberry is in his fourth year and has built Navy into the American's most consistent program. The Midshipmen went 10-3 in each of the last two seasons. Newberry is calling the defense himself this year after losing his defensive coordinator to the Baltimore Ravens.

Navy opened with a 42-15 win over Towson and then lost 38-30 at FAU. The FAU game was a tale of two halves. Navy trailed 38-7 before scoring 23 unanswered points in the second half. Woodson rushed for a 48-yard touchdown in the first quarter but left in the third with a high ankle sprain. Jackson Gutierrez came in and nearly erased the deficit — 75 rushing yards and a touchdown on seven carries, 100 passing yards and two touchdowns on six completions.

Drew Cronic's offense has diversified beyond the traditional triple option. Mortensen described it as a blend of wing T, flexbone and modern quarterback run-read concepts: "You've got this triple thing that was in place. He's got a background in the wing T, and then he's also evolved to get in the gun and run a lot of the quarterback power reads... It's a lot to get ready for."

ABOUT UAB (Home)

UAB's three games tell two stories. The offense produced 413 yards at Illinois with 41:03 of possession, then ran for 266 yards on 52 carries against ULM. At Louisiana, it produced 74 total yards in the first half on 26 plays with three first downs. Mortensen called it "one of the poor performances I've ever been involved with, in some ways."

The defense has been the constant. The unit held Louisiana-Monroe to three second-half points and then shut out Louisiana after halftime. Tylin Jackson leads the team with 3.5 tackles for loss and two sacks. Jeremiah Jordan's PFF grade has climbed from 61.2 to 66.8 to 77.2.

Mortensen confronted the offense after a slack Thursday practice before the Louisiana game. "There are things that rear their head in a game that we don't do in practice," he said. "We actually went back and showed them practice clips." The passing game has not materialized — Ryder Burton has completed 41 of 72 passes for 478 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Mortensen cited missing receiver availability in preseason camp as a factor: "Privately I had, I have to admit, I did have some concerns about when a guy's at the top of the route, is our quarterback gonna play with the anticipation we need him to, or is he gonna wait to see the angle and the body language 'cause the bank reps aren't there?"

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

Braxton Woodson / Jackson Gutierrez, QB, Navy — Woodson is day-to-day with a high ankle sprain. Gutierrez proved himself at FAU in relief. Newberry: "Right now Jackson's the guy. Excited for him."

MarcAnthony Parker, LB, Navy (#44) — Leads Navy with 18 tackles. Parker is a Birmingham native playing his senior season in his hometown. Newberry: "I'm sure Hulk's probably the mayor of Birmingham."

Muaaz Byard, LB, UAB (#35) — 30 tackles through three games, 10th nationally at 10.0 per game. His overall PFF grade has climbed from 55.6 to 67.0. His tackling grades — 44.0, 37.7, 35.0 — and 13 missed tackles are the number to watch against Navy's option.

Rod Robinson II, RB, UAB (#2) — 225 rushing yards on the season, UAB's bell cow. Rushed for 114 yards on 21 carries against ULM before being held to 52 yards at Louisiana.

INJURY REPORT / AVAILABILITY

Navy:

• Braxton Woodson (QB) — QUESTIONABLE. High ankle sprain suffered in Q3 at FAU. Day-to-day per Newberry. "He's doing much better right now than he was. I think today will tell us a lot."
• Jackson Gutierrez (QB) — AVAILABLE. "Right now Jackson's the guy," Newberry said.
• Maverick Chance (QB) — No. 3 quarterback. "Mav's doing some really good stuff," Newberry said.
• Christian Johnson (LB) — Hamstring. Newberry was unsure if he would play at FAU but he did. Moved from Will to Raider.
• Ira (CB) — Groin and illness. Half practice Monday. "I expect him to be full go on Friday," Newberry said.

UAB:

• Nigel Tate (DT) — OUT. "It is overdue, you know, relative to the time of the injury and what the projected return would be," Mortensen said. "We have reason to believe the rehab he's going through is going well."
• Payton Kirkland (OT) — Leg injury at Illinois in the opener. Has not played since. UAB has allowed seven sacks through three games.
• Kaleb Brown (WR) — Day-to-day. Has played sparingly.
• KJ Daniels (WR) — Day-to-day. Has played sparingly.
• Jaylen Elder (WR) — Has not played this season.
• Mortensen on receivers: "Some of these guys, to be frank, are still day by day, and so we're still trying to evaluate where they're at. I can't say for sure that some of the guys that are banged up will be back Friday."

WHEN NAVY HAS THE BALL

Woodson or Gutierrez, the scheme does not change. Cronic's offense ran for 246 yards at FAU even in a 31-point deficit. Woodson's 48-yard touchdown and Gutierrez's 49-yard rushing score showed the big-play potential from either quarterback. Vic Listorti (116 rushing yards) and the fullback rotation complement whoever is under center.

UAB's rushing defense ranks 11th in the American at 192.0 yards per game. The tackling grades have declined each week — 67.2, 54.0, 49.5 — even as the overall defense has improved. Against Navy's option, where a missed assignment can turn a 3-yard gain into a 30-yard gain, that trend matters. Byard acknowledged it: "Tackling, that's gonna be the main thing. Gotta tackle and get them down to the ground."

"They're not trying to fool you. They're not gonna do anything you haven't seen," Byard said. "We just have to be in the right spots at the right time and make plays and make tackles."

Opponents have outscored UAB 28-3 in the first quarter this season. Navy averages 33 minutes of possession per game. If UAB falls behind early, it may not get enough possessions to recover.

WHEN UAB HAS THE BALL

Navy's pass defense ranks 13th of 14 in the American. Opponents have completed 41 of 52 passes (78.8%) for 593 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception. At FAU, Caden Veltkamp went 27-of-32 for 386 yards and five touchdowns. FAU rushed for 42 net yards against Navy. FAU won 38-30.

UAB's offense is built on the ground game. UAB rushed for 266 yards against ULM. At Louisiana, the Ragin' Cajuns loaded the box and UAB's ground game vanished — 8 net rushing yards on 14 first-half carries. Navy's rush defense is better than Louisiana's.

"I really believe we can have an outstanding passing game," Mortensen said. "I think we have all the makings of it."

Robinson sees the connection: "When you get the passing game going, it opens up everything else."

Newberry on Burton: "He's an athletic quarterback. He can make plays with his feet. When they give him time, he makes some really good throws. Has a big arm."

NAVY WINS IF

The run game controls the clock and UAB's offense gets fewer chances to find a rhythm. Navy rushed for 246 yards at FAU even in a blowout deficit. If the game is close, the run volume increases.

UAB's offense stays one-dimensional and falls behind the sticks. Navy's defense has not forced a turnover in two games, but Burton has thrown three picks in three games.

The discipline gap holds. Navy is 3-0 against UAB, and in each game toughness and execution were the difference. UAB ranks 118th nationally in penalties per game at 8.7.

UAB WINS IF

The passing game arrives. The FAU blueprint is on film — the window through Navy's secondary is wide open. If Burton and the receivers can establish a rhythm, the numbers say the opportunity is there.

The defense maintains discipline for 60-70 plays. Byard framed Friday night as a stamina test: "That's gonna be the test of our defense, how disciplined we can be for 60, 70 plays. They're banking on somebody to mess up. So as long as we do our job every play, make sure our eyes in the right spot, we should be good."

Red zone trips become touchdowns. Against a Navy team averaging 36.0 points per game, field goals are not enough.

X FACTOR

The first quarter. Opponents have outscored UAB 28-3 in the opening frame. The Blazers have dominated the second half in every game — 33-24 overall, 27-14 in the fourth quarter. But against an option team that chews clock, falling behind early means fewer total possessions and less opportunity for the defense-led comeback that has defined UAB's season. Byard said it himself: "I feel like we're sitting back waiting these first couple games." Against Navy, there is no sitting back.

COACH SPEAK

Brian Newberry, Navy: "Impressed with their team really all three games this year. When you go back and you watch the Illinois game, especially for the first half of that game — really didn't look out of place with Illinois. A solid Big Ten team. I think they've gotten better each week on both sides of the football. I think they're extremely well-coached on both sides of the football."

Alex Mortensen, UAB: "They have talent. They have good players, too. It's one of the biggest fallacies going that they don't have good players. They have very good players."

THE PREDICTIONS

Dimers (model) | Navy | Navy 29, UAB 23 (71% win prob); UAB +7.5 favored at 53.8%

Pro Football Network (Oliver Hodgkinson) | Navy | Navy 44, UAB 31

ATS.io (model) | Navy | Navy 34, UAB 23

SportsGrid (model) | Navy SU / UAB ATS | Navy by 4; UAB +7.5 (5 stars); Over 51.5 (5 stars)

Doc Sports (Josh Schonwald) | Navy | Navy -7.0 (take Navy to cover)

Capper's Picks (Clinton Bell) | Under 51.5 | Navy favored; Under is the play

College Football Zone | Navy | Navy 31, UAB 17

Covers.com (consensus) | Navy 53% / Over 63% | 151 picks Navy, 132 picks UAB; 115 Over, 68 Under

SportsLine / CBS (model) | Paywalled | Over on the total; specific side behind paywall

Consensus: All available models and analysts pick Navy straight up. Score predictions range from Navy by 6 (Dimers, 29-23) to Navy by 14 (College Football Zone, 31-17). The spread is split — Dimers and SportsGrid both favor UAB to cover +7.5 while Doc Sports takes Navy. Covers.com public consensus is close at 53-47 Navy. The over/under leans Over — Covers.com public bettors at 63%, SportsGrid and SportsLine on the Over, with Capper's Picks the notable Under call.

DIEHARD BOTTOM LINE

UAB is an improved football team. It is not yet a consistent football team. The Blazers are trying to build continuity with new players, disrupted rotations as key players return from injury and players gain familiarity with the system and each other. UAB's weaknesses are matched against Navy's biggest strengths.

As a service academy, Navy does not deal much with the transfer portal. Its players are disciplined and tough. The coaching staff builds continuity, consistency and culture. For that reason, both Navy and Army are in their best sustained period of competitive excellence together since World War II during this chaotic NIL era. American Conference rosters are a revolving door. Navy and Army are not. That has shown up in a big way in the three meetings in this series.

The Blazers have the athletes to compete with Navy. But can they sustain the toughness and consistency necessary for four quarters? Can they maintain precision and attention to assignment detail? So far, while improved, this remains UAB's biggest hurdle. And while the Blazers are capable of winning this game, the pick here is "show me" before I can trust it.

Straight-up pick: Navy 34, UAB 17

Against-the-spread pick: Navy -7.0

Season picks record: UAB 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS | Overall 91-16 SU, 56-47-1 ATS