Diehard Picks: Week 2

We wrote earlier this week that the G6 Game of the Year is already here — Memphis at Boise State, Saturday in the Broncos' Pac-12 home debut. Boise is laying 8.5. Memphis won the only prior meeting in 2023. That column has everything you need on the matchup. Here, we pick it.

The Diehard G6 Top 25 flagged several other games worth watching this week: North Dakota State (2-0) travels to Air Force in its first Mountain West road game. UNLV heads to Denton to face a North Texas team that went 12-2 and reached the American title game last year. The defending FCS national champion Montana State is favored on the road at Nevada — one of the more unusual lines on the board.

In the state of Alabama, all four of our schools are in action. UAB hosts its home opener against ULM — an intriguing matchup between new head coach Alex Mortensen and former interim head coach Bryant Vincent, who returns to Protective Stadium for the first time as an opponent. Jacksonville State travels to Ohio as a 2.5-point underdog. South Alabama goes to Tulane getting 10.5. Troy hosts Alabama State.

Fifty-one games. Four sections. Here we go.

Record entering Week 2: SU 8-2 | ATS 5-5

Alabama Schools

ULM (0-1) at UAB (0-1) | UAB -10.5 | O/U 56.5

Pick: UAB 45, ULM 17 — UAB covers

ULM is 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games. UAB is the better team and will tease just how much it has improved under Mortensen.

Jacksonville State (1-1) at Ohio (0-1) | Ohio -2.5 | O/U 51.5

Pick: JSU 27, Ohio 23 — JSU covers

Covers model has this as a 2-point game (Ohio 26.65, JSU 24.59); JSU is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 with four wins by 6 or fewer points.

South Alabama (1-0) at Tulane (0-1) | Tulane -10.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: USA 23, Tulane 20 — South Alabama covers and wins outright

Tulane games have gone under in 8 of its last 10; after Green Wave looked bad against Duke, the Battle of Mardi Gras is ripe for an upset.

Troy (1-0) vs Alabama State (2-0) | No line (FCS)

Pick: Troy 45, Alabama State 14

Alabama State is a solid FCS team with a dangerous QB in Andrew Body, but Troy will have its way at the line of scrimmage.

G6 vs. G6

South Florida (1-0) at Army (1-0) | Army -3.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: USF 27, Army 24 — USF covers and wins outright

People are overreacting to how bad the USF offense underperformed in opener vs FIU. Bulls are a live road dog in the American opener for both teams.

App State (1-0) at East Carolina (0-1) | ECU -9.5 | O/U 56.5

Pick: ECU 38, App State 31 — App State covers

ECU managed just 162 total yards and 17 rushing yards in a 48-10 loss at Alabama. App State rolled up 647 total yards (299 rushing) in a 55-3 blowout of Maine and has covered in three straight head-to-head meetings.

UTSA (1-0) at Texas State (0-1) | Texas State -1.5 | O/U 64.5

Pick: UTSA 30, Texas State 24 — UTSA covers

UTSA is 2-10 against FBS opponents on the road since 2024. Texas State was blown out 59-7 by Texas in Week 1, but QB Brad Jackson averaged 9.2 yards per attempt in 2025 (eighth in FBS) and added 744 rushing yards. Last year's I-35 Rivalry produced 79 combined points.

UNLV (1-1) at North Texas (0-1) | UNLV -4.5 | O/U 57.5

Pick: North Texas 28, UNLV 21 — North Texas covers and wins outright

This is the week the tough schedule (Memphis, Hawaii) catches up to the Rebels. North Texas was no match for defending national champ Indiana in the opener, but will play well in this one.

Memphis (2-0) at Boise State (0-1) | Boise -8.5 | O/U 55.5

Pick: Boise State 31, Memphis 27 — Memphis covers

Memphis won the only prior meeting (2023); Boise State looked strong last week in loss at No. 2 Oregon, and they'll be the more desperate team here at home.

Buffalo (1-0) at FIU (0-1) | FIU -10.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: FIU 23, Buffalo 17 — Buffalo covers

FIU outgained USF 381-208 in its Week 1 loss but turned the ball over on three consecutive possessions — two JJ Kohl INTs and a fumbled tush push — converting a potential upset into a 19-9 defeat. If Kohl cleans up ball security, FIU's yardage advantage is real. If he doesn't, 10.5 is a lot.

Tulsa (1-0) at Sam Houston (0-1) | Tulsa -14 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Tulsa 30, Sam Houston 21 — Sam Houston covers

Sam Houston is much improved after going 2-10 in 2025, but so is Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane could be a sleeper in the American.

Georgia State (1-0) at Kennesaw State (1-0) | KSU -8.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Kennesaw State 28, Georgia State 27 — Georgia State covers

Kennesaw State posted a 47-0 shutout of West Georgia in its opener, holding the Wolves to seven first downs. Georgia State scored 59 on FCS North Carolina A&T but did it almost entirely on the ground (286 rushing yards, six rushing TDs). KSU is 8-0 SU and 4-0 ATS at home in recent games.

Middle Tennessee (1-0) at Marshall (0-1) | Marshall -14.5 | O/U 57.5

Pick: Marshall 27, Middle Tennessee 19 — Middle Tennessee covers

Marshall was shut out 45-0 at Penn State in Week 1, managing 147 total yards. But Marshall won last year's head-to-head 42-28 (covering -2.5) with 448 yards while controlling possession for 36:47. A 14.5-point spread inflated by recency.

Navy (1-0) at Florida Atlantic (0-1) | Navy -5.5 | O/U 58.5

Pick: Navy 40, FAU 27 — Navy covers

Navy rushed for 506 yards on 14 different ball carriers in its 42-15 opener against Towson. QB Braxton Woodson ran for 200 yards and three TDs (8.7 ypc).

North Dakota State (2-0) at Air Force (1-0) | NDSU -5.5 | O/U 47.5

Pick: NDSU 30, Air Force 20 — NDSU covers

NDSU (2-0) is playing its first Mountain West road game after going 12-2 in its final FCS season (2025); Air Force went 4-8.

New Mexico State (1-1) at Hawaii (0-2) | Hawaii -10 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Hawaii 30, New Mexico State 24 — New Mexico State covers

Hawaii is 0-2 against a tough schedule and QB Micah Alejado is completing just 52.2% of his passes. Hawaii is too good to start 0-3 but 10 points are too many.

G6 vs. Power 4

Washington State (0-1) at Kansas State (1-0) | K-State -19.5 | O/U 51.5

Pick: Kansas State 30, Washington State 17 — Washington State covers

WSU lost just 24-10 at No. 17 Washington in the Apple Cup despite not returning a single defensive starter. The line has moved from 19.5 to 17.5 at some books.

Old Dominion (1-0) at Virginia Tech (1-0) | VT -18.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Virginia Tech 34, ODU 17 — ODU covers

Virginia Tech has allowed ODU to rush for 201, 243 and 250 yards in the last three meetings — increasing every year. ODU won outright 45-26 in Lane Stadium last year, a loss that got Brent Pry fired.

Western Kentucky (0-1) at Georgia (1-0) | Georgia -39.5 | O/U 53.5

Pick: Georgia 51, WKU 10 — Georgia covers

WKU returned only seven starters and was blown out 49-14 at Nevada in Week 1. Georgia has won 29 of its last 30 home games and hung 63 on Tennessee State in the opener.

Eastern Michigan (1-1) at Michigan State (1-0) | MSU -17.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Michigan State 31, EMU 10 — Michigan State covers

Michigan State scored on its first five possessions against Toledo but reached the end zone only twice, settling for five field goals in a 30-20 win — serious red-zone finishing problems. EMU is 7-0 ATS following a loss.

UConn (1-0) vs Maryland (1-0) | Maryland -13.5 | O/U 53.5

Pick: Maryland 30, UConn 26 — UConn covers

UConn set a program record with 671 total yards in a 56-7 rout of Lafayette behind new QB Kalieb Osborne (19-of-26, 265 yards, 2 passing TDs, 90 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs). This is a near-complete roster rebuild — 87 new players, 60 via portal — under first-year coach Jason Candle.

Utah State (0-1) at Washington (1-0) | Washington -27.5 | O/U 56.5

Pick: Washington 48, Utah State 17 — Washington covers

Utah State committed four interceptions and had minus-2 rushing yards at halftime in a 29-17 home loss to FCS Idaho State — but still outgained the Bengals 407-241 in total yards. The turnovers were the problem, not total incompetence, which matters against a Washington team that won the Apple Cup just 24-10 despite 402 total yards.

Rice (1-0) at Notre Dame (1-0) | Notre Dame -44.5 | O/U 53.5

Pick: Notre Dame 45, Rice 10 — Rice covers

Rice ran the ball 70 times against 10 pass attempts in Week 1 and will try to milk the clock with a ground attack that averaged 192.8 rushing yards per game in 2025 (25th nationally). Notre Dame held Wisconsin to 67 rushing yards on 31 carries (2.2 ypc) in Week 1. The Owls' clock-control offense could keep the score closer than 44.5 suggests.

Bowling Green (0-1) at Nebraska (1-0) | Nebraska -28.5 | O/U 51.5

Pick: Nebraska 44, Bowling Green 7 — Nebraska covers

Bowling Green's rushing defense got shredded by FCS Tarleton State in Week 1 — RB Tylan Hines went for 250 yards on 26 carries with runs of 83 and 72 yards in a 20-13 upset loss. Nebraska averaged 5.9 yards per carry in Week 1 with three backs rotating fresh legs all night.

San Diego State (1-0) at UCLA (1-0) | UCLA -11.5 | O/U 51.5

Pick: San Diego State 24, UCLA 20 — San Diego State covers and wins outright

The line has moved from UCLA -8.5 to -11.5, but UCLA's run defense showed vulnerability in Week 1 when Cal's Adam Mohammed ran for 120 yards on 28 carries and executed an 85-yard all-rushing TD drive. SDSU's ground game went for 237 yards and four rushing TDs against Portland State with transfer Javion Kennard ripping a 55-yard run on just eight carries.

Oregon State (0-1) vs Texas Tech (1-0) | Texas Tech -25.5 | O/U 50.5

Pick: Texas Tech 38, Oregon State 21 — Oregon State covers

Oregon State ran the ball 26 times for 25 total rushing yards in a 33-20 loss to Houston — functionally a one-dimensional passing team. Texas Tech's front held Abilene Christian to 75 rushing yards with three sacks and six TFL in Week 1.

Georgia Southern (1-0) at Clemson (0-1) | Clemson -21 | O/U 56.5

Pick: Clemson 30, Georgia Southern 13 — Georgia Southern covers

Clemson went 1-for-13 on third downs and averaged 4.3 plays per drive in a 51-10 loss to LSU — 8 three-and-outs on 13 drives. Georgia Southern rode a 31-0 shutout into this game with a confident locker room. Clemson's offensive line was stuffed on 41% of run attempts against LSU — those problems don't fix themselves in a week.

Louisiana Tech (1-0) at LSU (1-0) | LSU -32.5 | O/U 55.5

Pick: LSU 52, Louisiana Tech 13 — LSU covers

Louisiana Tech scored touchdowns on its first 11 possessions in a program-record 80-6 win over Northwestern State — 528 yards of total offense. Last year in Tiger Stadium, the Bulldogs lost 23-7 but covered a 36.5-point spread. La Tech is 8-of-9 ATS as an underdog in recent games.

Southern Miss (1-0) at Auburn (1-0) | Auburn -29.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Auburn 28, Southern Miss 13 — Southern Miss covers

Auburn QB Byrum Brown threw three interceptions against Baylor — the first time he's thrown three picks in a single game after just seven all of 2025 — and the Tigers needed a goal-line stop on a two-point conversion with nine seconds left to survive 17-16. Southern Miss just beat Alcorn State 49-3 behind three rushing TDs from Steven Robinson and three INTs by DB Kobi Albert.

Charlotte (0-1) at Ole Miss (1-0) | Ole Miss -47.5 | O/U 61.5

Pick: Ole Miss 56, Charlotte 10 — Charlotte covers

Charlotte lost to FCS Citadel 43-41 in triple overtime, surrendering 268 rushing yards and six rushing TDs — but the 49ers still scored 41 and Cole Gonzales threw for 322 yards. Ole Miss needs to win by 48. The model projection is Ole Miss by 33 — at nearly seven touchdowns, this is a number that punishes dominant teams when starters come out in the third quarter.

Fresno State (0-1) vs Sacramento State (1-1) | Fresno -18.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: Fresno State 31, Sacramento State 10 — Fresno State covers

Fresno State managed 116 total yards, 2.6 yards per play and zero points in a 39-0 shutout at USC — the Bulldogs never advanced past the USC 39. Sacramento State earned its first win as an FBS program (52-0 over Mississippi Valley State) behind QB Jackson Sharman's 247 yards and four TDs. A team that couldn't move the ball at all in Week 1 laying 18.5 against an FCS squad that just put up 453 yards is a shaky proposition.

Louisiana (1-0) at USC (2-0) | USC -30.5 | O/U 59.5

Pick: USC 49, Louisiana 17 — USC covers

USC's defense is averaging 6 TFL, 5 sacks and 3 QB hits per game, including a shutout of Fresno State. QB Jayden Maiava is completing 88.9% of his passes with 635 yards, 5 TDs and zero INTs. Louisiana's third-down defense ranks 122nd nationally (allowing 53.8%) while USC's third-down offense ranks 7th (converting 66.7%).

G6 vs. FCS

Wofford (2-0) at Kent State (0-1) | Kent -11.5 | O/U 47.5

Pick: Kent State 34, Wofford 10 — Kent State covers

Kent State managed just 179 total yards in a 57-0 shutout at South Carolina. Kent went 0-12 in 2024 before rebounding to 5-7 in 2025. Wofford is 1-0 after beating Gardner-Webb 17-13 — the Terriers are a live dog against a program still trying to find its floor.

Colgate (2-0) at Central Michigan (0-1) | CMU -23.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Central Michigan 34, Colgate 10 — Central Michigan covers

CMU was outgained 364-149 and trailed 35-0 before a garbage-time score in a 38-7 loss at New Mexico — nine first downs all game. Colgate is 2-0 after beating Holy Cross 35-10.

Holy Cross (0-2) at Miami (OH) (0-1) | M-OH -30.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Miami (OH) 37, Holy Cross 6 — Miami (OH) covers

Miami (OH) gave up 646 yards and seven TD passes (an ACC record) to Pitt's Mason Heintschel in a 59-14 loss. Holy Cross is 0-2 with consecutive 35-10 losses. Two bad teams meeting, but the RedHawks' secondary got torched in a way that could linger.

Stony Brook (1-1) at Ball State (0-1) | Ball St -14.5 | O/U 57.5

Pick: Ball State 27, Stony Brook 12 — Ball State covers

Ball State went to Columbus and got blown out 56-3 by No. 1 Ohio State — Jeremiah Smith had 151 yards and two TDs by halftime. Stony Brook is 1-1 and coming off a 36-32 comeback win over Lindenwood, showing it can score.

Robert Morris (2-0) at Akron (0-1) | Akron -27.5 | O/U 41.5

Pick: Akron 37, Robert Morris 7 — Akron covers

Akron trailed Wake Forest 31-3 entering the fourth quarter before two garbage-time TDs made the 38-16 final look more respectable than it was. Redshirt freshman QB Cibastian Broughton managed just 111 passing yards. Robert Morris is 2-0 with 57 points scored and 16 allowed.

Central Connecticut (0-1) at Toledo (0-1) | Toledo -33.5 | O/U 55.5

Pick: Toledo 65, Central Connecticut 10 — Toledo covers

Toledo kept it competitive at Michigan State (30-20, within 19-14 in the third quarter) and added the 2025 FCS Defensive Player of the Year, DE Andrew Zock, via transfer. CCSU, the two-time defending NEC champion, was rocked 59-20 at No. 12 South Dakota in Week 0.

Wagner (1-1) at James Madison (1-0) | JMU -45.5 | O/U 54.5

Pick: James Madison 42, Wagner 3 — Wagner covers

Billy Napier opened his JMU tenure with a 20-13 win over Liberty in a game the Dukes controlled throughout. JMU went 12-2 and won the Sun Belt title in 2025 before making the College Football Playoff. The 45.5-point spread tells you everything.

Monmouth (1-1) at Western Michigan (0-1) | WMU -25.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Western Michigan 41, Monmouth 10 — WMU covers

WMU should have beaten Michigan. The Broncos led 12-7 and had the game won when officials put one second back on the clock after a Hail Mary was knocked down — Michigan hit the next one. The MAC has formally appealed the result and asked the NCAA to recognize WMU as the winner. The emotional hangover from a stolen win is a real factor.

Northern Colorado (0-2) at Wyoming (0-1) | Wyo -22.5 | O/U 47.5

Pick: Wyoming 33, Northern Colorado 7 — Wyoming covers

Wyoming QB Tyler Hughes threw three interceptions in his first career start, and the Cowboys committed four total turnovers in a 35-13 loss at Colorado State. Wyoming needs this one badly but the turnover problems make 22.5 a lot to lay.

Mercyhurst (0-2) at New Mexico (1-0) | UNM -41.5 | O/U 51.5

Pick: New Mexico 52, Mercyhurst 7 — UNM covers

New Mexico outgained Central Michigan 364-149 in a dominant 38-7 opening win and is favored by 41.5 — the Lobos' biggest spread since a 42-point number against Mississippi Valley State in 2015. Mercyhurst is 0-2 and only in its third year of Division I football.

Gardner-Webb (0-2) at Liberty (0-1) | Liberty -27.5 | O/U 55.5

Pick: Liberty 41, Gardner-Webb 10 — Liberty covers

Gardner-Webb fired head coach Kris McCullough after just one game (a 35-17 loss at Austin Peay), then lost 17-13 at Wofford under interim coach Pete Bennett. A program that changed coaches after a single game is not covering any spread. Liberty is winless too (lost 20-13 at JMU) but at least has organizational stability.

Southern Utah (1-1) at Colorado State (1-0) | CSU -20.5 | O/U 56.5

Pick: Colorado State 44, Southern Utah 10 — CSU covers

Hauss Hejny threw five TD passes (23-of-33, 214 yards, zero INTs) in Jim Mora's coaching debut — a 35-13 romp over Wyoming where CSU forced four turnovers. The Rams looked polished and well-coached in the opener.

Illinois State (2-0) at Northern Illinois (0-1) | ILST -4.5 | O/U 48.5

Pick: Northern Illinois 28, Illinois State 17 — NIU covers

The FCS team is the favorite — and for good reason. No. 4 Illinois State is the 2025 FCS national runner-up, is 2-0 after wins of 76-0 and 41-10, and has four preseason FCS All-Americans. NIU was shut out 40-0 at Iowa, managing 120 total yards and 24 first-half yards. NIU did add former Walter Payton Award runner-up QB Taron Dickens (3,508 yards, 38 TDs at Western Carolina in 2025) via transfer, but he came off the bench against Iowa.

West Georgia (0-1) at Arkansas State (0-1) | No line

Pick: Arkansas State 55, West Georgia 3

Arkansas State QB Trey Owens, a Texas transfer, set a school record with 325 passing yards in his debut but also threw four interceptions in a 42-24 loss at Memphis. West Georgia was blown out 47-0 by Kennesaw State. The turnovers need to get cleaned up, but the talent gap is enormous.

Lindenwood (1-1) at Missouri State (0-1) | MOST -19.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Missouri State 37, Lindenwood 10 — Missouri State covers

Missouri State was shut out 50-0 at No. 8 Texas A&M (67 total yards, 1-for-9 on third down), but that tells you more about A&M than Missouri State, which is in its second year as an FBS program. Lindenwood is 1-1 — the Lions can move the ball but the talent gap is significant.

Fordham (0-2) at Coastal Carolina (0-1) | CCU -34.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: Coastal Carolina 40, Fordham 10 — Fordham covers

Coastal trailed West Virginia 24-0 at halftime, then outscored the Mountaineers 24-7 in the second half behind QB Deuce Bailey (21-of-37, 373 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs), falling just short 31-24 after a failed onside kick. That kind of second-half fight under first-year coach Ryan Beard suggests more resilience than the final shows. Fordham is 0-2.

Cal Poly (2-0) at San Jose State (1-1) | SJSU -20.5 | O/U 56.5

Pick: San Jose State 38, Cal Poly 17 — SJSU covers

Cal Poly stunned Idaho 38-34 on a final-drive TD with nine seconds left in Week 0 — QB Anthony Grigsby Jr. threw for 319 yards and four TDs including the game-winner. The Mustangs are a live FCS program. SJSU lost 42-26 at USC after trailing 28-0 at halftime.

Texas Southern (1-1) at UTEP (0-1) | UTEP -25.5 | O/U 52.5

Pick: UTEP 34, Texas Southern 7 — UTEP covers

UTEP was shut out 51-0 at Oklahoma and is home for the first time, desperate for any sign of life. Texas Southern is 1-1 after getting blown out 52-14 by Prairie View A&M in the Labor Day Classic, giving up 28 third-quarter points.

Montana State (2-0) at Nevada (1-0) | MTST -3.5 | O/U 49.5

Pick: Nevada 44, Montana State 20 — Nevada covers

The defending FCS national champion is favored on the road at an FBS program. Montana State crushed Utah Tech 54-0, scoring on offense, defense and special teams behind QB Justin Lamson (260 yards, 3 TDs). Nevada looked explosive in a 49-14 win over Western Kentucky (486 total yards, 323 rushing) — and Nevada coach Jeff Choate is Montana State's former HC (2016-19). This is a legit toss-up and one of the best games of the week.